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S. Hoekstra, K. Klockow, R. Riley, J. Brotzge, H. Brooks, and S. Erickson

1. Introduction Tornado prediction capabilities have advanced significantly over the past few decades. The first tornado forecasts (the term “warning” had not yet been used) were issued in 1948 ( Doswell et al. 1999 ). By 1978, the average tornado warning lead time was 3 min and the probability of detection was 22%. Twenty years later there was a 65% probability of tornado detection with a 13-min lead time on average ( Golden and Adams 2000 ); some of the improvement was attributed to the

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Maria A. F. Silva Dias

. , 1927 : Meteorological summary for Brazil, October 1927 . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 55 , 500 . Doswell, C. A. , 2001 : Severe Convective Storms . Meteor. Monogr., No. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 570 pp . Doswell, C. A., Moller A. R. , and Brooks H. E. , 1999 : Storm spotting and public awareness since the first tornado forecasts of 1948 . Wea. Forecasting , 14 , 544 – 557 . Durkee, J. D. , and Mote T. L. , 2010 : A climatology of warm-season mesoscale convective complexes in subtropical

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Kevin D. Ash, Ronald L. Schumann III, and Gregg C. Bowser

1. Introduction Over the past century, annual U.S. tornado deaths have declined because of advancements in the monitoring and forecasting of meteorological phenomena, as well as the ability to disseminate warning information via multiple media platforms ( Ashley 2007 ; Simmons and Sutter 2005 , 2008 ). Yet, research from several recent tornado events suggests that even though warning messages are widely broadcast and received, the ways in which people interpret and act upon these warnings may

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