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James L. Franklin, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven II, Miles B. Lawrence, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

the nominal (synoptic) forecast time. At the conclusion of the season, the forecasts are evaluated by comparing the forecast positions and intensities to the corresponding post-storm-derived best track positions and intensities for each cyclone. Forecasts are included only if the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone at both the forecast and the verifying time; extratropical and remnant low stages are excluded. The current verification procedures differ from those used in previous years, in

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James L. Franklin, Lixion A. Avila, Jack L. Beven, Miles B. Lawrence, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

improved official forecasts was a significant change in the way the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast Aviation Model initializes the hurricane vortex; as a result, the NCEP global model's handling of tropical cyclones was much improved in 2000. Performance of the NCEP global model is particularly important, because it not only provides direct track forecast guidance to the forecasters, but its analysis and forecast fields are also used as input to other track models

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