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Ben Harvey, John Methven, Chloe Eagle, and Humphrey Lean

. Together with observations of local wind speeds and vertical turbulent fluxes, the circuit integrals provide a detailed evaluation of the convergence of the model with resolution against reality at a range of spatial scales. A series of nested numerical simulations is employed, spanning the range from a traditional NWP model (12-km grid spacing) in which both tropospheric and boundary layer convective mixing are performed by parameterization schemes, through convection-permitting resolutions in which

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Jeffrey M. Chagnon and Suzanne L. Gray

uncertain nature of the parameterized processes that supply diabatic heating and cooling in numerical weather prediction models, it is of critical importance to determine the mechanisms by which these diabatic uncertainties influence the PV and development of extratropical cyclones. Chagnon et al. (2013 , hereafter CGM13) diagnosed a dipole pattern of diabatic PV straddling the tropopause in global and mesoscale model simulations of a North Atlantic cyclone using a PV tracer method. CGM13

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G. Vaughan, J. Methven, D. Anderson, B. Antonescu, L. Baker, T. P. Baker, S. P. Ballard, K. N. Bower, P. R. A. Brown, J. Chagnon, T. W. Choularton, J. Chylik, P. J. Connolly, P. A. Cook, R. J. Cotton, J. Crosier, C. Dearden, J. R. Dorsey, T. H. A. Frame, M. W. Gallagher, M. Goodliff, S. L. Gray, B. J. Harvey, P. Knippertz, H. W. Lean, D. Li, G. Lloyd, O. Martínez–Alvarado, J. Nicol, J. Norris, E. Öström, J. Owen, D. J. Parker, R. S. Plant, I. A. Renfrew, N. M. Roberts, P. Rosenberg, A. C. Rudd, D. M. Schultz, J. P. Taylor, T. Trzeciak, R. Tubbs, A. K. Vance, P. J. van Leeuwen, A. Wellpott, and A. Woolley

that have a strong match (high FSS) when the bands first emerge maintain the highest FSS throughout the forecast, showing that the model is capable of simulating the evolution of the bands, given favorable initial conditions. Currently, the DIAMET team is evaluating the MOGREPS-UK ensemble performance in precipitation forecasts using FSS, and relating skill in precipitation to the skill in the forecasts of mesoscale features that are associated with precipitation, such as fronts. F ig . 13. FSS

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C. Dearden, G. Vaughan, T. Tsai, and J.-P. Chen

model performance, we offer some insight into the response of the model to different levels of microphysical complexity, and discuss the implications for the parameterization of ice processes in operational weather forecast models. 2. Model description All the numerical simulations presented here were conducted using version 3.4.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Each simulation was configured with a single domain at 5-km horizontal grid spacing. This resolution is sufficiently

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Ross N. Bannister

discussed in section 2a ). These adaptive schemes, plus a static localization scheme that has a similar factorization property, are studied. The performance of each scheme is evaluated in terms of (i) the structure of the moderation functions that are implied and (ii) the effect on the degree of balance. It is beyond the scope of this paper to run assimilation experiments with these cases, but the balance diagnostics shown are applied to ensemble forecasts from a full weather forecasting model and so

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Sam Hardy, David M. Schultz, and Geraint Vaughan

. C. Davies , and W. A. Norton , 1996 : Fragmentation of stratospheric intrusions . J. Geophys. Res. , 101 , 1435 – 1456 , doi: 10.1029/95JD02674 . 10.1029/95JD02674 Battalio , M. , and J. Dyer , 2017 : The minimum length scale for evaluating QG omega using high-resolution model data . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 145 , 1659 – 1678 , doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0241.1 . 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0241.1 Bluestein , H. B. , 1992 : Principles of Kinematics and Dynamics. Vol. 1, Synoptic

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H. F. Dacre, P. A. Clark, O. Martinez-Alvarado, M. A. Stringer, and D. A. Lavers

, 1497 – 1502 , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00164.1 . Dee , D. P. , and Coauthors , 2011 : The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 137 , 553 – 597 , doi: 10.1002/qj.828 . de Leeuw , J. , J. Methven , and M. Blackburn , 2015 : Evaluation of ERA-Interim reanalysis precipitation products using England and Wales observations . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 141 , 798 – 806 doi: 10.1002/qj.2395 . Dettinger , M

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G. Lloyd, C. Dearden, T. W. Choularton, J. Crosier, and K. N. Bower

1. Introduction In the midlatitudes extratropical cyclones can dominate the synoptic situation and, therefore, the conditions experienced at the surface. Occasionally these systems bring conditions that cause substantial damage to property and significant loss of life, primarily through strong winds and excessive rainfall ( Leckebusch et al. 2007 ; Ulbrich et al. 2001 , 2003a , b ). Observations of the large-scale characteristics of these storms have led to a number of models describing their

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