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Omar V. Müller, Ernesto Hugo Berbery, Domingo Alcaraz-Segura, and Michael B. Ek

are used to describe the characteristics of the 2008 drought and to evaluate the model performance. They are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) global land-only gridded daily precipitation analysis at a 1° × 1° grid spacing derived from gauge-only observations ( Shi et al. 2000 ; Silva et al. 2007 ) and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) 3B43 monthly satellite data at 0.25° × 0.25° grid spacing ( Huffman et al. 2007 ). We will

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Lixia Zhang and Tianjun Zhou

pattern persists throughout the subsequent winter and spring ( Wu et al. 2009 ). These kinds of observational patterns have been used as observational metrics to gauge the performances of climate models in simulating the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon ( Song and Zhou 2014 ). Besides the PJ teleconnection pattern, another dominant teleconnection pattern is called the Silk Road pattern ( Enomoto et al. 2003 ), which exerts significant influence on the East Asian monsoon climate

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Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca, Elsa Mohino, Carlos R. Mechoso, Cyril Caminade, Michela Biasutti, Marco Gaetani, J. Garcia-Serrano, Edward K. Vizy, Kerry Cook, Yongkang Xue, Irene Polo, Teresa Losada, Leonard Druyan, Bernard Fontaine, Juergen Bader, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Lisa Goddard, Serge Janicot, Alberto Arribas, William Lau, Andrew Colman, M. Vellinga, David P. Rowell, Fred Kucharski, and Aurore Voldoire

; http://amma-international.org/ ) has coordinated an ambitious program aimed to improve the knowledge and understanding of the WAM’s variability and predictability on daily-to-decadal time scales, including climate change ( Redelsperger et al. 2006 ; AMMA 2010 ; Ruti et al. 2011 ). The West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME; Druyan et al. 2010 ) is a community initiative designed to evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) in reproducing

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Ronald E. Stewart, Hailan Wang, Mathew Barlow, Ernesto H. Berbery, Wenju Cai, Martin P. Hoerling, Krishna K. Kanikicharla, Randal D. Koster, Bradfield Lyon, Annarita Mariotti, Carlos R. Mechoso, Omar V. Müller, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Richard Seager, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Lixia Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou

is described by Rienecker et al. (2008) , and an overview of the model’s performance is provided by Molod et al. (2012) . For these experiments, the model was run with 72 hybrid sigma vertical levels extending to 0.01 hPa and with a 1° horizontal resolution on a latitude–longitude grid. The simulations consist of 12 ensemble members, each forced with observed monthly SST, sea ice, and time-varying greenhouse gases for the period from 1871 to the present. See Schubert et al. (2014) for further

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Hailan Wang, Randal D. Koster, Max J. Suarez, and Pavel Ya. Groisman

discussing the morphology and metrics of droughts and heat waves. Section 3 examines the physical mechanisms responsible for their occurrence. Section 4 contains a review and analysis of interannual variability and trends, and section 5 discusses projections and predictability. A summary is provided in section 6 . In addition, two appendices are provided: Appendix A describes the datasets and model simulations used in this study, and appendix B provides a compilation (based on various sources

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