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  • Drought: Advances in Monitoring, Preparedness, and Understanding Drought Characteristics x
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Ashok K. Mishra and Vijay P. Singh

the identification of both the dominant modes of variability and how those modes vary with time. 2.4. Goodness-of-fit test To compare observed and simulated drought time series, the goodness of fit was calculated based on the correlation coefficient (CC), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean bias error (MBE). If O i and S i represent observed and simulated drought time series, then If e i = O i − S i denotes individual model-prediction errors, then model performances are based on

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Kingtse C. Mo, Lindsey N. Long, and Jae-Kyung E. Schemm

–west contrast of the FOC also have a realistic seasonal cycle and climatology. The annual-mean P and the seasonal cycle simulated by the models are given in Figures 4b–h and 5b–h , respectively. The NCEP T382 CFS has a realistic seasonal cycle and climatology. It also has the best performance in simulating the FOC of extreme events. Overall, the T126 CFS captures the dryness and weak seasonal cycle over the western interior region west of 105°W, but it is slightly wetter than the T382 CFS over the

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Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Santiago Beguería, Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jesús Julio Camarero, Juan I. López-Moreno, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Jesús Revuelto, Enrique Morán-Tejeda, and Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo

. 1993 ) used the gamma distribution to transform precipitation series to standardized units. Nevertheless, the frequency distributions of the precipitation series show significant changes that depended on the time scale ( Vicente-Serrano 2006 ). Among the different evaluated models, the Pearson III shows enhanced adaptability to precipitation series at different time scales ( Guttman 1999 ; Vicente-Serrano 2006 ; Quiring 2009 ). Therefore, here we use the algorithm described by Vicente

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Daniel J. McEvoy, Justin L. Huntington, John T. Abatzoglou, and Laura M. Edwards

its effects on drought. Vicente-Serrano et al. ( Vicente-Serrano et al. 2010 ) demonstrated that the SPEI (using T -based PET) was able to better characterize recent drought over SPI in the arid regions that experienced significant warming over the last century. However, little research has been conducted directly comparing the performance of the SPI against the SPEI, particularly as it relates to hydrologic metrics of drought in arid regions of the United States. Most of the municipal water

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