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Kathryn M. Koczot, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

perspectives: 1) snowmelt and the percentage of precipitation that falls as snow; 2) evapotranspiration (potential and actual) and related components (soil-moisture recharge, sublimation, and soil zone evapotranspiration); and 3) streamflow and flow components (surface, subsurface, and groundwater). 4.1. PRMS inputs Figures 6 – 8 show the catchment’s mean annual maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation for each baseline condition. The three solid colored lines in Figures 6 – 8 indicate the 11

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

HRUs on any day of the simulated time period (see Markstrom et al. 2008 ). For this study, basin mean annual and monthly values of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and soil moisture are considered. The central tendencies, or mean, of the five GCMs for each of the three emission scenarios by basin were calculated for the selected PRMS output variables. For each of the eighty-eight 12-yr windows (from window 2001–12 through window 2088–99), the

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P. C. D. Milly and Krista A. Dunne

basins, with drainage areas from 85 to 9324 km 2 , are distributed across the contiguous United States ( Table 1 ) and span a wide range of climatic moisture availability ( Figure 1 ); the basins range from snow dominated to snow free. Only three of the five climate models were used because we could not obtain climate-model runoff data from one climate model and we could not reconcile climate-model outputs of climate variables with PRMS outputs for another climate model. The three climate models used

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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

hydrologic budget components indicate an increase in infiltration and evapotranspiration with a corresponding decrease in soil moisture and a decrease in surface runoff ( Markstrom et al. 2010 ), which is consistent with a decrease in the annual maximum discharge. The projected changes in hydrologic budget components also indicate a decrease in snowmelt runoff, which would also contribute to decreasing annual peak discharges. For the basin without a clear temporal shift in the pdfs ( Figure 4e ), the

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Daniel E. Christiansen, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

shown to affect hydrologic factors such as snowmelt and runoff ( Backlund et al. 2008 ). In areas of the western United States, a shift in the onset of snow and the timing of snowmelt can affect water availability related to drinking water, hydroelectric power, and fish reproduction ( Barnett et al. 2005 ). In addition, a change in the GSL can alter the hydrologic cycle by increasing evapotranspiration, depleting soil moisture, and reducing streamflow ( Backlund et al. 2008 ). Along with hydrologic

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Roland J. Viger, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, John W. Jones, and Gary R. Buell

the idea that, by reducing acreage of exposed, permeable soil within the watershed, infiltration of moisture into the soil would be reduced and thereby limit the water available to the subsurface and groundwater systems. Increases in imperviousness also resulted in significant reductions in evapotranspiration. This was expected as the result of reduced soil moisture (because more precipitation was directly transferred into surface runoff, reducing infiltration) and because the increases in

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David M. Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger

water balance for the entire modeled area is illustrated in Figure 2 . The figure shows the mean monthly values, in centimeters per month, for precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET), total runoff (surface plus groundwater plus subsurface runoff), groundwater runoff, and soil moisture for the period 1960–2006. The monthly variation is a function of season and storage effects. Over the annual cycle P-ET equals the total runoff. The simulated mean annual streamflow for the historical 46-yr

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John Risley, Hamid Moradkhani, Lauren Hay, and Steve Markstrom

hot, dry summers. Increasing air temperatures and decreased snowpack storage would create drier soil-moisture conditions in the summer. Actual evapotranspiration would then be limited by water supply in the summer, which would decrease the evaporation ratio even if total annual precipitation was unchanged. 3.7. Variability Two measures of the impact of climate change on streamflow variability in the 14 basins include the coefficient of variation (standard deviation divided by mean) and PDFs. 3

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