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Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang

), upstream of the spurious convection in 10min.6cycle, has dewpoints around 58°–62°F at 2100 UTC in THOM while 10min.6cycle dewpoints are about 62°–66°F. The 10min.6cycle dewpoints are too moist, compared with the observed dewpoints of ~61°F in this area (not shown). It is in this region of excess moisture where the 10min.6cycle forecast develops spurious convection in advance of the observed MCS ( Figs. 5c,d ). The low-level air that had been advected into northwest Oklahoma and southwest Kansas by 1800

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Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, and Samuel Degelia

nocturnal convection (e.g., Karyampudi et al. 1995 ). Understanding and improving the predictability of atmospheric bores on the nocturnal stable layer is therefore one of the primary goals of PECAN ( Parsons et al. 2013 ). The unique field observations during PECAN, such as temperature and moisture retrievals by the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI; Turner and Löhnert 2014 ) at the FP sites, together with the forecast system described in the present paper, facilitate this goal of

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Sean Stelten and William A. Gallus Jr.

type 2 case failed to produce the convection. Perhaps in the case of type 2 events, smaller-scale features or impulses moving through the LLJ are causing the initiation, rather than the broader LLJ itself. If these small-scale features, whether they be gravity waves or moisture fluctuations within the jet, are relatively hard to predict, that could explain why some type 2 events are predicted relatively well while other events are completely missed by the model forecasts. Overall, all four types

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