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Michael Maier-Gerber, Michael Riemer, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, Enrico Di Muzio, and Ron McTaggart-Cowan

moisture in the midtroposphere. They also speculate that the interactions of precursor features and processes required for TT further reduce the overall predictability as those constitute additional probability factors that multiplicatively extend the joint probability for non-TT pathways. Despite this probabilistic way of viewing TT predictability, it still remains unclear which factors of uncertainty cause predictability issues (i.e., strikingly rapid changes in forecast uncertainty with lead time

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Stephan Rasp, Tobias Selz, and George C. Craig

the cold front ( Harrold 1973 ). WCBs transport large quantities of heat and moisture poleward and upward and are associated with bands of clouds and precipitation in extratropical cyclones ( Browning 1990 ). Climatological analyses of WCBs have shown a preferred occurrence in the winter and over the oceans ( Madonna et al. 2014 ; Eckhardt et al. 2004 ). Furthermore, they are of particular importance for extratropical precipitation extremes ( Pfahl et al. 2014 ), especially when they interact

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Julia H. Keller, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, Heather M. Archambault, Lance Bosart, James D. Doyle, Jenni L. Evans, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Kyle Griffin, Patrick A. Harr, Naoko Kitabatake, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon, Julian F. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Ryan D. Torn, and Fuqing Zhang

moves poleward and starts to interact with the midlatitude flow ( Fig. 1a ). This results in the formation of a jet streak ( Fig. 1b ) and a poleward deflection of the jet near the transitioning cyclone in conjunction with the development of a ridge–trough couplet ( Fig. 1b ). At the same time, a region of enhanced moisture flux—a so-called atmospheric river ( Zhu and Newell 1998 )—forms ahead of the downstream trough. The ridge–trough couplet continues to amplify, a new cyclone develops farther

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Hilke S. Lentink, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, and Sarah C. Jones

the forecast errors associated with these changes. For mature TCs that make landfall, on the other hand, many (idealized) studies document the influence of either a flat coastal region or an orographic barrier (e.g., Taiwan) on the track and structural development. When a TC vortex impinges on land, regardless of orography, it has two effects: a reduction of moisture supply and an increase of surface roughness. First, when the inner core is still over the ocean, dry air from land is transported

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Christian Euler, Michael Riemer, Tobias Kremer, and Elmar Schömer

. 2018 ). For our numerical simulation, COSMO is used in default settings: the heating rate due to radiation is calculated by the parameterization scheme of Ritter and Geleyn (1992) . Surface heat, moisture and momentum fluxes are parameterized by a turbulent kinetic energy-based surface transfer scheme formulated in conservative thermodynamic variables. While the parameterization of deep convection is turned off, a shallow convection scheme after Tiedtke (1989) is used. Microphysical processes

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Kevin Bachmann, Christian Keil, George C. Craig, Martin Weissmann, and Christian A. Welzbacher

, and G. C. Craig , 2018 : Soil moisture–precipitation coupling over Central Europe: Interactions between surface anomalies at different scales and the dynamical implication . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 144 , 2863 – 2875 , . 10.1002/qj.3415 Ben Bouallègue , Z. , and S. E. Theis , 2014 : Spatial techniques applied to precipitation ensemble forecasts: From verification results to probabilistic products . Meteor. Appl. , 21 , 922 – 929 , https

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

rotation and the sphericity of Earth [for an introductory-level text on Rossby waves see Rhines (2002) ]. Rossby waves are in distinct contrast to other types of waves such as gravity waves or sound waves, which rely on gravity or the compressibility of air, respectively, for their basic restoring mechanism. The atmospheric general circulation cannot be understood without reference to Rossby waves because they transfer energy, moisture, and momentum across large distances. This can generate

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Mirjam Hirt, Stephan Rasp, Ulrich Blahak, and George C. Craig

. Rasp , L. Schneider , and C. Barthlott , 2019 : Relative contribution of soil moisture, boundary layer and microphysical perturbations on convective predictability in different weather regimes . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , , in press . 10.1002/qj.3607 Kirshbaum , D. J. , G. H. Bryan , R. Rotunno , and D. R. Durran , 2007a : The triggering of orographic rainbands by small-scale topography . J. Atmos. Sci. , 64 , 1530 – 1549 , https

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