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Edmund K. M. Chang

the SRES A1B scenario and found some indications of decreasing frequency along the East Coast and an increase near the West Coast by the end of the twenty-first century. These results are consistent with a projected decrease in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) at 850 hPa over the East Coast and an increase over the western part of the United States found in the same model experiment. Long et al. (2009) examined storm-track projection near the east coast of North America using the Canadian Regional

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Justin Sheffield, Andrew P. Barrett, Brian Colle, D. Nelun Fernando, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Tong Ren, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Yolande L. Serra, Anji Seth, Jeanne M. Thibeault, Julienne C. Stroeve, Ze Yang, and Lei Yin

1. Introduction This is the first part of a three-part paper on the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al. 2012 ) model simulations for North America. The first two papers evaluate the CMIP5 models in their ability to replicate the observed features of North American continental and regional climate and related climate processes for the recent past. This first part evaluates the models in terms of continental and regional climatology, and Sheffield et al

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Eric D. Maloney, Suzana J. Camargo, Edmund Chang, Brian Colle, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, James Kinter, Benjamin Kirtman, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Zaitao Pan, Richard Seager, Yolande Serra, Anji Seth, Justin Sheffield, Julienne Stroeve, Jeanne Thibeault, Shang-Ping Xie, Chunzai Wang, Bruce Wyman, and Ming Zhao

1. Introduction The twenty-first-century projections generated by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al. 2012 ) are analyzed here to assess climate change in North America (NA). This study accompanies two companion papers ( Sheffield et al. 2013a , hereafter Part I ; Sheffield et al. 2013b , hereafter Part II ) that assess the CMIP5 models’ potential to accurately simulate regional climate in the twentieth century. Additionally, it provides an overview

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Jeanne M. Thibeault and Anji Seth

1. Introduction Warm-season precipitation [June–August (JJA)] is important to the economy and ecology of the midlatitude region of eastern North America, which encompasses the U.S. Northeast, southeastern Ontario, and southern Quebec [defined as 35°–50°N and 70°–80°W ( Fig. 1 ), which is referred to hereafter as the northeast region]. The northeast region is densely populated with large urban centers located preferentially along the coast, yet much of the region is rural, covered by forests or

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Justin Sheffield, Suzana J. Camargo, Rong Fu, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Seon Tae Kim, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Richard Seager, Yolande L. Serra, De-Zheng Sun, Chunzai Wang, Shang-Ping Xie, Jin-Yi Yu, Tao Zhang, and Ming Zhao

1. Introduction This is the second part of a three-part paper on phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al. 2012 ) model simulations for North America. This second part evaluates the CMIP5 models in their ability to replicate the observed variability of North American continental and regional climate, and related climate processes. Sheffield et al. (2013 , hereafter Part I) evaluate the representation of the climatology of continental and regional climate

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Sanjiv Kumar, James Kinter III, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Zaitao Pan, and Jennifer Adams

evaluate the CMIP5 climate models’ skill in simulating the observed twentieth-century warming hole in North America, 2) to determine the relationship between observed temperature variability and natural multidecadal climate variability, and 3) to assess the twenty-first century warming hole projections in view of the twentieth-century warming hole’s simulation uncertainty. Section 2 describes CMIP5 data used and the methods applied. Results are given in section 3 , and section 4 presents a summary

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Leila M. V. Carvalho and Charles Jones

1. Introduction The presence of a monsoonal type of circulation involving intense convective activity and heavy precipitation is the dominant climatic feature in the tropical Americas during the respective summer seasons. The North American monsoon system (NAMS) and the South American monsoon system (SAMS) are often interpreted as the two extremes of the seasonal cycle of heat, moisture transport, and precipitation over the Americas ( Vera et al. 2006 ). The SAMS and NAMS seasonal cycles are

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Paul A. Dirmeyer, Yan Jin, Bohar Singh, and Xiaoqin Yan

1. Introduction A large number of studies with regional and global models and observed datasets over the last three decades have demonstrated that the state of the land surface has a significant influence on the atmosphere. Soil moisture is the most important land surface state variable affecting the global atmosphere on intraseasonal to interannual time scales ( Dirmeyer 2011a ). Climate modeling and observational studies have shown that a large portion of North America demonstrates a feedback

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Kerrie L. Geil, Yolande L. Serra, and Xubin Zeng

1. Introduction The evolution of the North American monsoon system (NAMS) can be described as having development, mature, and decay stages similar to but less intense than its larger Asian counterpart. During the development stage (May–June), the extratropical jet weakens and migrates to the north resulting in decreased frequency of synoptic-scale transient activity from the midlatitudes over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States ( Higgins et al. 1997 ). A thermal surface low forms

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J. David Neelin, Baird Langenbrunner, Joyce E. Meyerson, Alex Hall, and Neil Berg

precipitation changes Figure 1 shows precipitation changes for the winter season (DJF) for the end of the century RCP8.5 scenario simulations relative to the base period (1960–90) for the West Coast of North America and the northeastern Pacific region in the CMIP5 models. To have a common grid for comparison, all models have been interpolated to a 2.5° × 2.5° latitude–longitude grid, the same resolution as the observational estimates of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation

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