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David R. Ryglicki, Daniel Hodyss, and Gregory Rainwater

nutations as the centroid nears the TC center in the left-of-shear or right-of-shear position, depending on the hemisphere. Fig . 2. Storm-relative tracks of the IR brightness temperature centroid, colored by day for each TC: (a) Joaquin, (b) Matthew, (c) Kenneth, and (d) Ernie. Angles are math convention: 0° is east, 90° is north, etc. Radial axes are distance in kilometers. Teal arrows are time-averaged shear direction from SHRD [defined as 850–200-hPa shear magnitude vs time (200–800 km)], SHDC

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Robert G. Nystrom and Fuqing Zhang

1. Introduction Hurricane Patricia (2015) was an extraordinary storm in the eastern North Pacific basin that underwent an unprecedented rapid intensification (RI) process in which it intensified from a tropical storm, with maximum wind speeds of 30 m s −1 , to a category 5 hurricane, with maximum wind speeds of 95 m s −1 , in less than 36 h. While tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts have been improving substantially over recent decades, and intensity forecast have also improved some in recent

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