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David M. Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger

) scale assessments of hydrologic impacts. To more effectively support natural resource managers, especially those relying on water resources, there is a need to establish scientifically defensible methods of integrating GCM forecasts with hydrologic models at more relevant spatial scales. As a result, a large number of regional hydrology model applications have been developed to evaluate the impact of climate change in North America, including studies in the American Midwest (e.g., Jha et al. 2004

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Daniel E. Christiansen, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

: Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends . Can. J. For. Res. , 31 , 526 – 538 . Parmesan , C. , and G. Yohe , 2003 : A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems . Nature , 421 , 37 – 42 . Ryan , M. G. , and Coauthors , 2008 : Land resources: Forest and arid lands . The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States

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Mark C. Mastin, Katherine J. Chase, and R. W. Dudley

indicators in the US Northeast . Climate Dyn. , 28 , 381 – 407 , doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0187-8 . Hodgkins , G. A. , and R. W. Dudley , 2005 : Changes in the magnitude of annual and monthly streamflows in New England, 1902–2002 . U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Rep. 2005-5135, 37 pp . Hodgkins , G. A. , and R. W. Dudley , 2006a : Changes in the timing of winter–spring streamflows in eastern North America, 1913–2002 . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 33 , L06402 , doi:10

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John Risley, Hamid Moradkhani, Lauren Hay, and Steve Markstrom

runoff under various emission scenarios. Stewart et al. ( Stewart et al. 2004 ) created regression relations between streamflow timing and precipitation and temperature indices. In their analysis, they used National Center for Atmospheric Research climate model output under a “business as usual” greenhouse-gas emissions scenario ( Washington et al. 2000 ) and projected springtime snowmelt occurring earlier than the historic average across much of western North America for the 1995–2099 period. To

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William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, and Markstrom Steve

snowpack in western North America . J. Climate , 19 , 6209 – 6220 . Painter , T. H. , J. S. Deems , J. Belnap , A. F. Hamlet , C. C. Landry , and B. Udall , 2010 : Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow . Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , 107 , 17 125 – 17 130 . Serreze , M. C. , M. Clark , R. Armstrong , D. McGinnis , and R. Pulwarty , 1999 : Characteristics of the western United States snowpack from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) data

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

implications of changes in the timing of and volume of snowmelt are not well understood. PRMS results project changes in the timing of peak flows because of snowmelt in all but the coldest basins ( Figure 12 ), which may affect freshwater mixing in estuarine ecosystems and increase the length of the summer drought that characterizes much of western North America ( Stewart et al. 2004 ). A shorter snow-covered season, with smaller snowpack volumes and a tendency for midwinter melts, has obvious implications

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Kathryn M. Koczot, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

uncertainty associated with the choice of baseline conditions in the change-factor downscaling procedure. The Almanor Catchment of the North Fork of the Feather River, California ( Figure 1 ), was selected from the 14 basins used by Hay et al. ( Hay et al. 2011 ). The hydrology of the Almanor Catchment is influenced by the phases of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) (see Koczot et al. 2005 ), which is a multidecadal temperature pattern that has been identified in the surface-water temperature of the

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