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Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Marie-Estelle Demory, Reinhard Schiemann, Jane Strachan, Kevin Hodges, Ray Bell, and Joanne Camp

such that the physics and dynamics of the models are kept the same as far as practically possible, so that any differences in simulation can be attributed to resolution alone (see Mizielinski et al. 2014 ). The horizontal resolutions of the respective models are shown in Table 1 and span the range between CMIP5-type resolutions and global weather forecasting resolution. The model integrations span February 1985–December 2011 in order to use all the data then available from the Operational Sea

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Young-Kwon Lim, Siegfried D. Schubert, Oreste Reale, Myong-In Lee, Andrea M. Molod, and Max J. Suarez

Fortuna. NASA Tech. Rep. NASA TM-2012-104606, Vol. 28, 117 pp . Moorthi , S. , and M. J. Suarez , 1992 : Relaxed Arakawa–Schubert: A parameterization of moist convection for general circulation models . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 120 , 978 – 1002 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0978:RASAPO>2.0.CO;2 . Moorthi , S. , H.-L. Pan , and P. Caplan , 2001 : Changes to the 2001 NCEP operational MRF/AVN global analysis/forecast system. NWS Tech. Bull. 484, 14 pp . Murakami , H. , B. Wang , and A

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Wei Mei, Shang-Ping Xie, and Ming Zhao

the operational forecast of the path for a specific TC at a lead time of a few days, which has improved steadily in recent decades (e.g., Cangialosi and Franklin 2013 ). These findings also have important implications in the context of climate change: even if the multimodel ensemble can well project changes in total seasonal TC counts under global warming, it remains difficult to assess changes in local TC occurrence, particularly near the coast, where landfall TCs incur the greatest societal and

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Christina M. Patricola, R. Saravanan, and Ping Chang

University ( Gray and Klotzbach 2005 ) called for one of the most active hurricane seasons on record, both underpredicted the number of tropical storms and hurricanes. In addition, the midseason forecast by NOAA predicted a seasonal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) ( Bell et al. 2000 ), which is defined as the sum of the squares of the 6-hourly maximum sustained wind speed throughout the life of a tropical cyclone, of 158–236 (×10 4 kt 2 ) (180%–270% of the median), noting that the primary uncertainty

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