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Thomas H. A. Frame, John Methven, Nigel M. Roberts, and Helen A. Titley

operational forecasters for several years. For example, Fig. 1 is a sequence of “Dalmatian plots” from MOGREPS-15 at increasing lead time but with identical validity times. These forecasts correspond to a severe windstorm that struck the United Kingdom on 28 October 2013 causing severe disruption to transport and power supplies as well as resulting in several deaths. The contours show the mean sea level pressure from the control forecast and the various colored dots show the locations of all objectively

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G. Vaughan, J. Methven, D. Anderson, B. Antonescu, L. Baker, T. P. Baker, S. P. Ballard, K. N. Bower, P. R. A. Brown, J. Chagnon, T. W. Choularton, J. Chylik, P. J. Connolly, P. A. Cook, R. J. Cotton, J. Crosier, C. Dearden, J. R. Dorsey, T. H. A. Frame, M. W. Gallagher, M. Goodliff, S. L. Gray, B. J. Harvey, P. Knippertz, H. W. Lean, D. Li, G. Lloyd, O. Martínez–Alvarado, J. Nicol, J. Norris, E. Öström, J. Owen, D. J. Parker, R. S. Plant, I. A. Renfrew, N. M. Roberts, P. Rosenberg, A. C. Rudd, D. M. Schultz, J. P. Taylor, T. Trzeciak, R. Tubbs, A. K. Vance, P. J. van Leeuwen, A. Wellpott, and A. Woolley

PREDICTION OF BANDING IN THE HIGH-WIND REGION. DIAMET IOP 8 provided an ideal test case for the new Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) convection-permitting forecast system prior to its operational implementation. The U.K. version of the MOGREPS (MOGREPS-UK) ensemble is now run routinely and consists of 12 forecasts run every 6 h with the Met Office Unified Model, on a limited area spanning the United Kingdom with a horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km. For DIAMET IOP 8

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David M. Schultz and Joseph M. Sienkiewicz

cyclone deepened rapidly east of Canada. Based on the operational experience at the Ocean Prediction Center, the case was typical of extratropical cyclones with strong surface winds caused by sting jets. An area of storm-force to hurricane-force sustained winds (50–64 kt, 26–33 m s −1 ) occurred within about 460 km to the east and south from the cyclone center at 0731 UTC 8 December, with a maximum of 75 kt (39 m s −1 ) ( Fig. 1 ). These 10-m ocean vector winds were derived from the National

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Jeffrey M. Chagnon and Suzanne L. Gray

), diabatic Rossby waves (e.g., Parker and Thorpe 1995 ; Moore and Montgomery 2004 ; Moore et al. 2013 ), and forecast error growth (e.g., Brennan et al. 2008 ; Davies and Didone 2013 ). In the absence of frictional and diabatic processes, PV is materially conserved. Therefore, PV provides a convenient means to characterize the large-scale structure of the atmosphere and its evolution in mid- and high latitudes where the planetary vorticity is nonnegligible. Climatologically, PV increases with height

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H. F. Dacre, P. A. Clark, O. Martinez-Alvarado, M. A. Stringer, and D. A. Lavers

-00256.1 . Viale , M. , and M. N. Nunez , 2011 : Climatology of winter orographic precipitation over the subtropical central Andes and associated synoptic and regional characteristics . J. Hydrometeor. , 12 , 481 – 507 , doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1284.1 . Wick , G. A. , P. J. Neiman , and F. M. Ralph , 2013 : Evaluation of forecasts of the water vapor signature of atmospheric rivers in operational numerical weather prediction models . Wea. Forecasting , 28 , 1337 – 1352 , doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-13

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Ross N. Bannister

guide operational developers to the best localization scheme. It is also worth pointing out here that forecast ensembles can also be used to calibrate the matrix in variational or hybrid systems ( Fisher 2003 ; Buehner et al. 2010 ; Fairbairn et al. 2014 ), and this process is likely to be more accurate if the forecasts are appropriately balanced due to improved localization. Implementing a scheme like ECO-RAP in an operational scheme may be beneficial, but as with all modifications to an

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C. Dearden, G. Vaughan, T. Tsai, and J.-P. Chen

model performance, we offer some insight into the response of the model to different levels of microphysical complexity, and discuss the implications for the parameterization of ice processes in operational weather forecast models. 2. Model description All the numerical simulations presented here were conducted using version 3.4.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Each simulation was configured with a single domain at 5-km horizontal grid spacing. This resolution is sufficiently

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Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Laura H. Baker, Suzanne L. Gray, John Methven, and Robert S. Plant

influenced subsequent operational forecasts. However, the simulation shown here starts from the global Met Office analysis for 0000 UTC 8 December 2011 and therefore is independent of the dropsonde data. The first dropsonde leg (1130–1234 UTC) was from south to north toward the low pressure center (D–C in Fig. 3b ). During this leg the aircraft flew from just north of the surface cold front, crossing above the cloud bands into the cyclone center. Surface pressure measured by the tenth sonde was 959 hPa

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Geraint Vaughan, Bogdan Antonescu, David M. Schultz, and Christopher Dearden

small-scale features in a data-sparse area was necessary for accurate forecasting of the rainband. Section 2 describes the datasets and mesoscale model simulation used in this study. Operational and campaign observations used in this study are described in sections 2a and 2b , respectively. The model and its configuration for this study are described in section 2c . An overview of the synoptic and mesoscale environment in which the rainband evolved is provided in section 3 , and the aircraft

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Matthew R. Clark and Douglas J. Parker

narrow rainband . Meteor. Atmos. Phys. , 46 , 123 – 154 , doi: 10.1007/BF01027339 . Koch , S. E. , and C. O’Handley , 1997 : Operational forecasting and detection of mesoscale gravity waves . Wea. Forecasting , 12 , 253 – 281 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0253:OFADOM>2.0.CO;2 . Koch , S. E. , and S. Saleeby , 2001 : An automated system for the analysis of gravity waves and other mesoscale phenomena . Wea. Forecasting , 16 , 661 – 679 , doi: 10

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