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Jian Ling, Peter Bauer, Peter Bechtold, Anton Beljaars, Richard Forbes, Frederic Vitart, Marcela Ulate, and Chidong Zhang

. MJO initiation dates are marked above the horizontal lines to the left. Tracked amplitudes (amp) and propagation speed (spd) are given for each event (see section 2 ). (b) Corresponding time series of RMM index amplitude (curve) and phases (colors). The global measure is the all-season Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index of Wheeler and Hendon (2004) . It has been used to assess the statistics of MJO forecast skill of operational and research models ( Lin et al. 2008 ; Gottschalck et al. 2010

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Xiouhua Fu, Wanqiu Wang, June-Yi Lee, Bin Wang, Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Jingwei Xu, Juan Li, and Scott Weaver

.1175/2011MWR3584.1 . Fu , X. , J.-Y. Lee , B. Wang , W. Q. Wang , and F. Vitart , 2013a : Intra-seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon in four operational and research models . J. Climate , 26 , 4186 – 4203 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00252.1 . Fu , X. , J.-Y. Lee , P.-C. Hsu , H. Taniguchi , B. Wang , W. Q. Wang , and S. Weaver , 2013b : Multi-model MJO forecasting during DYNAMO/CINDY period . Climate Dyn. , 41 , 1067 – 1081 , doi: 10.1007/s00382

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Tomoe Nasuno, Tim Li, and Kazuyoshi Kikuchi

, representation of the MJO in numerical models (even state-of-the-art operational models) is not satisfactory ( Hung et al. 2013 ; Zhang et al. 2013 ). In particular, the accurate simulation and forecast of convective initiation of the MJO is a difficult task ( Seo et al. 2009 ; Gottschalck et al. 2010 ). A number of studies have addressed the idea that moisture accumulation is the key to initiation and control of the MJO ( Bladé and Hartmann 1993 ; Kemball-Cook and Weare 2001 ; Maloney et al. 2010

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Nick Guy and David P. Jorgensen

phenomena (e.g., El Niño–Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole); discussed further in Lau and Waliser (2005) and Zhang (2005) . Given the extensive impact of the MJO on global circulations, it is important to correctly simulate the MJO in forecast and climate models. However, current model simulations do not represent the MJO well ( Lin et al. 2006 ; Benedict and Randall 2009 ). This is due in part to an incomplete understanding of convective dynamics and

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George N. Kiladis, Juliana Dias, Katherine H. Straub, Matthew C. Wheeler, Stefan N. Tulich, Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Klaus M. Weickmann, and Michael J. Ventrice

. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , in press . Gloeckler , L. C. , and P. E. Roundy , 2013 : Modulation of the extratropical circulation by combined activity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and equatorial Rossby waves during boreal winter . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 141 , 1347 – 1357 , doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00179.1 . Gottschalck , J. , and Coauthors , 2010 : A framework for assessing operational Madden–Julian oscillation forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO working group project . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 91

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Brandon W. Kerns and Shuyi S. Chen

) operational analysis is used. These data were provided in real time in support of field campaign forecasting efforts. The dataset benefits from 4D variational data assimilation (4DVar), including the DYNAMO field observations. For this study, the 0.25° pressure-level data are used. c. Infrared satellite data Infrared (IR) satellite coverage during DYNAMO was provided by Meteorological Satellite-7 ( Meteosat-7 ). For this study, the data were interpolated to a 0.05° grid. The focus is on latitude

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Jean-Philippe Duvel

of a few days. Many studies also show the more specific relation between the MJO and tropical cyclones (TCs) in different parts of the globe (e.g., Liebmann et al. 1994 ; Maloney and Hartmann 2000a , b ; Hall et al. 2001 ; Bessafi and Wheeler 2006 ; Ho et al. 2006 ; Camargo et al. 2009 ; Ramsay et al. 2012 ; Klotzbach 2014 ). The modulation of the cyclogenesis by the MJO is an important issue for forecasting the TC activity during a cyclone season. It is also important for understanding

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