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Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca, Elsa Mohino, Carlos R. Mechoso, Cyril Caminade, Michela Biasutti, Marco Gaetani, J. Garcia-Serrano, Edward K. Vizy, Kerry Cook, Yongkang Xue, Irene Polo, Teresa Losada, Leonard Druyan, Bernard Fontaine, Juergen Bader, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Lisa Goddard, Serge Janicot, Alberto Arribas, William Lau, Andrew Colman, M. Vellinga, David P. Rowell, Fred Kucharski, and Aurore Voldoire

, the work by Paeth et al. (2009) suggests that in climate change scenarios land use changes could become primarily responsible for the simulated climate response over West Africa. 4. Seasonal forecasting of drought in Africa During the last decade seasonal forecasting has matured from a research activity to a fully operational service, with many centers using initialized state-of-the-art coupled models. There are currently 12 WMO Global Producing Centers (GPCs) for long-range forecasting that

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Lixia Zhang and Tianjun Zhou

indicates drought in north China is weakening deserves further study. 7. Prediction and projection of drought in China a. Studies on drought prediction The prediction of the East Asian monsoon is a topic with a long history and is still of concern today both in the scientific research community and operational forecasting groups. The prediction over East Asia mostly concentrates on precipitation. SST-constrained Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type atmospheric general circulation model

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Mathew Barlow, Benjamin Zaitchik, Shlomit Paz, Emily Black, Jason Evans, and Andrew Hoell

forecasting in the region is not yet clear. Snowmelt is a primary driver of river flows in the high mountains of the region, and, while good observations of snowpack accumulation are not currently available, operationally available data for cold season precipitation have been shown to be an effective indirect measure of snowpack and can serve as a skillful basis for river flow forecasts for the Amu Dar’ya and Syr Dar’ya and nearby rivers, either by accumulating precipitation within a basin ( Schär et al

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Omar V. Müller, Ernesto Hugo Berbery, Domingo Alcaraz-Segura, and Michael B. Ek

indicating that a more realistic representation of surface conditions reduces model biases, many current numerical models, particularly those used for operational forecasts, still employ fixed land-cover types. Hence, they are unable to represent the additional sources of interannual variability owing to land-cover changes, as a result of either land-use changes or the vegetation’s degree of stress (e.g., during droughts, wet periods, or insect outbreaks). In other words, models that do not include

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Ronald E. Stewart, Hailan Wang, Mathew Barlow, Ernesto H. Berbery, Wenju Cai, Martin P. Hoerling, Krishna K. Kanikicharla, Randal D. Koster, Bradfield Lyon, Annarita Mariotti, Carlos R. Mechoso, Omar V. Müller, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Richard Seager, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Lixia Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou

1. Introduction Drought, which can occur in almost any region of the world, is one of the most destructive natural hazards faced by society. Some of the direst concerns related to climate change are associated with possible changes in drought frequency and severity, although regional drought projections often show large uncertainties (e.g., Seneviratne et al. 2012a ; Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2013 ). A substantial amount of research and operational effort has been devoted to investigating

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