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Jeffrey D. Massey, W. James Steenburgh, Jason C. Knievel, and William Y. Y. Cheng

1. Introduction Accurate temperature forecasts by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are critical for the protection of life and property, economic and operational activities, and routine day-to-day planning. Temperature forecasts not only affect near-surface (2 m) conditions, but also atmospheric stability, planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights, near-surface winds, and precipitation type. Large systematic temperature errors from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are

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Hailing Zhang, Zhaoxia Pu, and Xuebo Zhang

model . J. Climate Appl. Meteor. , 22 , 1065 – 1092 . Liu, Y. , and Coauthors , 2008 : The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. Army test and evaluation command. Part II: Interrange comparison of the accuracy of model analyses and forecasts . J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. , 47 , 1093 – 1104 . Mass, C. F. , Ovens D. , Westrick K. , and Colle B. A. , 2002 : Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc

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Jeffrey D. Massey, W. James Steenburgh, Sebastian W. Hoch, and Derek D. Jensen

al. 1997 ), the Dudhia shortwave radiation parameterization ( Dudhia 1989 ), the Noah LSM ( Chen and Dudhia 2001 ), the Yonsei University PBL parameterization ( Hong et al. 2006 ), explicit sixth-order numerical diffusion ( Knievel et al. 2007 ), and the Kain–Fritsch cumulus parameterization ( Kain 2004 ). We used 0.5° Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses for initial atmospheric and land surface analyses, as well as lateral boundary conditions, as is done in the operational 4DWX-DPG system

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Jeffrey D. Massey, W. James Steenburgh, Sebastian W. Hoch, and Jason C. Knievel

1. Introduction Near-surface (2 m) temperature (NST) forecasts are critical for the protection of life and property, for economic and operational activities, and for routine day-to-day planning but remain a major challenge for numerical weather prediction. Modeling systems in many regions of the world have trouble simulating NSTs and typically underpredict the diurnal NST cycle, which largely reflects a pronounced nighttime NST warm bias (e.g., Steeneveld et al. 2008 ; Edwards et al. 2011

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Feimin Zhang and Zhaoxia Pu

weather prediction (NWP; e.g., Golding 1993 ; Meyer and Rao 1999 ; Gultepe et al. 2016 ; Pu et al. 2016 ; Pu 2017 ). Zhou et al. (2012) evaluated the performance of low visibility/fog predictions over North America using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational forecast models. Results showed that the accuracy of visibility/fog forecasts from these models was poor in comparison to the accuracy of operational precipitation forecasts from the same models. Previous

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H. J. S. Fernando, E. R. Pardyjak, S. Di Sabatino, F. K. Chow, S. F. J. De Wekker, S. W. Hoch, J. Hacker, J. C. Pace, T. Pratt, Z. Pu, W. J. Steenburgh, C. D. Whiteman, Y. Wang, D. Zajic, B. Balsley, R. Dimitrova, G. D. Emmitt, C. W. Higgins, J. C. R. Hunt, J. C. Knievel, D. Lawrence, Y. Liu, D. F. Nadeau, E. Kit, B. W. Blomquist, P. Conry, R. S. Coppersmith, E. Creegan, M. Felton, A. Grachev, N. Gunawardena, C. Hang, C. M. Hocut, G. Huynh, M. E. Jeglum, D. Jensen, V. Kulandaivelu, M. Lehner, L. S. Leo, D. Liberzon, J. D. Massey, K. McEnerney, S. Pal, T. Price, M. Sghiatti, Z. Silver, M. Thompson, H. Zhang, and T. Zsedrovits

forecast cycle was conducted ( Zhang and Pu 2014 ). The results illustrated that the quality of EnKF/WRF analysis is generally reasonable, and the short-range (3 h) forecast errors are comparable to those of NCEP’s NAM forecasts for both 10-m wind speed and temperature. Since the latter sets the gold standard for operational forecasts, having EnKF/WRF performance statistically on par with NAM implies that substantial progress has been made with respect to EnKF/WRF; further improvements are continuing

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Robert S. Arthur, Katherine A. Lundquist, Jeffrey D. Mirocha, and Fotini K. Chow

desert mountain . J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. , 54 , 732 – 751 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0223.1 . 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0223.1 Liu , Y. , and Coauthors , 2008 : The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part I: Overview of the modeling system, the forecast products, and how the products are used . J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. , 47 , 1077 – 1092 , https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1653.1 . 10.1175/2007JAMC1653.1 Lundquist

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Matthew E. Jeglum, Sebastian W. Hoch, Derek D. Jensen, Reneta Dimitrova, and Zachariah Silver

the supplemental materials of Fernando et al. (2015) . To supplement the observations, numerical simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, version 3.4.1 ( Skamarock et al. 2008 ). The model configuration included four one-way nested domains, 50 vertical levels (22 levels below 600 m), and a horizontal resolution of 500 m in the innermost domain, which is a 60-km square centered on the east slope of GM. At 500-m horizontal resolution, the steepest slopes on

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