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John E. Janowiak, Valery J. Dagostaro, Vernon E. Kousky, and Robert J. Joyce

1. Introduction Precipitation is a fundamental element of the earth’s weather, water, and climate system, and is a primary link in the transfer of mass and energy between the atmosphere and ocean. Because of that, it is important to monitor variations in precipitation, yet it remains a challenge to quantify precipitation over all regions of the planet and even more of a challenge to forecast it correctly. Furthermore, even where rain gauge density is relatively dense, such as over the United

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Kingtse C. Mo, Eric Rogers, Wesley Ebisuzaki, R. Wayne Higgins, J. Woollen, and M. L. Carrera

assimilation and SSTs in the Gulf of California and address the uncertainties in the analyses. The impact studies are based on three of NCEP’s data assimilation systems: one global and two regional systems. The global system is the Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS). During the EOP, data from the operational Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) forecast system were also archived. The GDAS products serve as a reference because it has higher resolution and captures the monsoon-related features better

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Andrea J. Ray, Gregg M. Garfin, Margaret Wilder, Marcela Vásquez-León, Melanie Lenart, and Andrew C. Comrie

Mexican Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (National Meteorological Service, SMN) issues analogous seasonal precipitation forecasts (information online at http://smn.cna.gob.mx/SMN.html ). Although some experimental forecasts and monsoon-related information are available, primarily on research or experimental Web sites, no operational 1 forecasts of key seasonal features of the monsoon currently exist (e.g., onset, overall strength, duration). Forecasts of a number of monsoon-related parameters exist

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Wayne Higgins and David Gochis

international team of NAME scientists from the United States, Mexico, and Central America carried out a major field campaign during the summer of 2004 to develop improved North American monsoon forecasts. NAME 2004 was an unprecedented opportunity to gather an extensive set of atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface observations in the core region of the North American monsoon, including northwestern Mexico, the southwestern United States, and adjacent oceanic areas. The campaign involved scientists from

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Arthur V. Douglas and Phillip J. Englehart

inception, a major goal of the NAME experiment has been the development of a highly refined synoptic database for diagnostic studies of the monsoon system. Based on the enhanced observational datasets produced in the 2004 campaign, the NAME modeling community is now prepared to perform a series of experiments that demonstrate the impact of the NAME datasets on both operational and research models. As expected with any single-season field experiment, a basic question for NAME is, How characteristic were

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Wanqiu Wang and Pingping Xie

. (2005) showed that the simulated NAM rainfall from the PSU–NCAR MM5 was sensitive to the specified SSTs. In addition, accurate estimate of SSTs are also found to be important in the monitoring and forecast of hurricane activities in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic ( Bender and Ginis 2000 ), which have strong potential impacts over North America. Results from these studies indicate that an accurate SST analysis is essential for understanding the mechanisms of the NAM variability and for

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David J. Gochis, Christopher J. Watts, Jaime Garatuza-Payan, and Julio Cesar-Rodriguez

precipitation analyses in North American monsoon research has been the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) unified daily precipitation analyses ( Higgins et al. 2000 ). This product is generated both operationally and retrospectively, at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.25° and was used as the operational forecast verification product during EOP forecasting activities. Since the NERN is not an operational product available in real time, we want to assess the

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Richard H. Johnson, Paul E. Ciesielski, Brian D. McNoldy, Peter J. Rogers, and Richard K. Taft

1. Introduction From June through September 2004 the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) was conducted over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States to investigate the mean structure and variability of the North American summer monsoon. A key element of the NAME observing system was a network of operational and supplemental soundings stretching from central Mexico to the southern United States ( Fig. 1 ). This sounding network, in combination with an array of other observing

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Michelle Hallack-Alegria and David W. Watkins Jr.

condition of insufficient moisture caused by a deficit in precipitation over some time period ( McKee et al. 1993 ). Operational definitions of drought may be classified in four interrelated categories: meteorological drought, hydrological drought, agricultural drought, and socioeconomic drought. Meteorological drought is usually defined by the degree of dryness and the duration of the dry period. Hydrological drought is associated with the effects of periods of precipitation shortfalls on surface or

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X. Gao, J. Li, and S. Sorooshian

days—the longest updating time interval in our tests, the 2004 NAM simulation was comparable with observations and consistent with the NAM’s diagnostic features when checked at intraseasonal time scales (i.e., the monthly to daily means). Because predicting intraseasonal precipitation and circulation features is an important issue for operational short-term weather/climate forecasts and because the predictions have many applications, to areas such as hydrology and agriculture, we focus on examining

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