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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

-scale flow, in particular errors related to latent heat release. Accordingly, an adequate representation of WCBs could reduce systematic forecast errors in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale flow. The only study so far toward a systematic evaluation of WCBs is provided by Madonna et al. (2015) , who investigated operational medium-range European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) forecasts for the three Northern Hemisphere winters of 2002/03, 2006

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Yi-Hung Kuo, Kathleen A. Schiro, and J. David Neelin

-term forecasting purposes, since models adopted for weather forecasting or reanalysis share common components with climate models. Many conventional diagnostics for climate models emphasize comparisons against long-term climatology or variability at different time scales, and the model performance examined by these metrics is affected by multiple factors. While sensitivity experiments with respect to such metrics are useful in identifying important processes ( Benedict et al. 2013 , 2014 ; Boyle et al. 2015

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