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David R. Ryglicki, James D. Doyle, Daniel Hodyss, Joshua H. Cossuth, Yi Jin, Kevin C. Viner, and Jerome M. Schmidt

to an operational forecast. For demonstration, we choose a high-impact atypical RI TC that was not part of the original six from Part I but nevertheless underwent RI in moderate vertical wind shear: 2016 northern Atlantic (NATL) Matthew ( Stewart 2017 ). For this analysis, we use SHIPS and CIMSS shear analyses, GOES-13 WV observations, CIMSS AMVs, and 0.5° GFS analyses. We use the GFS analyses here in an attempt to simulate operational conditions more closely. The decomposition of the GFS

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Jie Feng and Xuguang Wang

operational forecasts initialized using state-of-the-art hurricane analysis/prediction systems to assimilate the novel TC observations often fail to capture the TC rapid intensification (RI) process and the maximum intensity, particularly for strong hurricanes. For example, for the record-breaking intense (category 5) and extraordinarily small Hurricane Patricia in 2015, none of the main operational dynamical and statistical–dynamical models even predicted a maximum intensity forecast above category 2

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Shixuan Zhang, Zhaoxia Pu, and Christopher Velden

, 2005 ) derived from geostationary satellites, have supplied useful information for improving hurricane forecasting. Previous studies have demonstrated that assimilating these AMVs into NWP models can result in improved analyses and forecasts of TCs and their environment. Langland et al. (2009) and Berger et al. (2011) found that track forecasts in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) were improved, owing to the more accurate representation of the environmental flow

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Robert G. Nystrom and Fuqing Zhang

years ( Cangialosi 2018 ), Hurricane Patricia set records for maximum eastern North Pacific NHC official intensity forecast errors at 12, 24, 36, and 48 h lead times ( Kimberlain et al. 2016 ). Additionally, no operationally available dynamical or statistical guidance was able to correctly forecast the peak intensity or rate of intensification. In this study, we demonstrate methods for improved prediction of Hurricane Patricia using a cycling ensemble data assimilation system and also examine

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Xu Lu and Xuguang Wang

speed (Vmax), and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP)] ( Thu and Krishnamurti 1992 ; Kurihara et al. 1995 , 1998 , Liu et al. 2000 , 2006 ; Pu and Braun 2001 ; Tallapragada et al. 2014 ). In the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRF), vortex initialization (VI) contains two components: vortex relocation (VR) and vortex modification (VM), where VR corrects the storm location and VM modifies the storm intensity

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Jie Feng and Xuguang Wang

data assimilation for HWRF with continuous cycling and a dual-resolution configuration ( Lu et al. 2017a , b ), extended from the GSI EnVar hybrid DA system for the global prediction system (e.g., Wang et al. 2013 ; Wang and Lei 2014 ). The initial conditions in the outer domain with an 18-km grid are directly interpolated from the global analysis of the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) hybrid DA system at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP; Wang et al. 2013 ). As for

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Quanjia Zhong, Jianping Li, Lifeng Zhang, Ruiqiang Ding, and Baosheng Li

1. Introduction The accuracy of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasts is of particular importance for warning the public to protect life and property in the affected area. The accuracy of TC track forecasts has steadily improved in recent decades along with a global reduction in forecast error for operational hurricane forecast models ( Elsberry et al. 2007 ; DeMaria et al. 2014 ). However, although many operational and research centers have made efforts to improve TC intensity

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David R. Ryglicki, Joshua H. Cossuth, Daniel Hodyss, and James D. Doyle

the Dvorak technique, have also been observed, and this work will focus on this “atypical” class of TCs. Six cases have been observed that all share similar characteristics in both IR and water vapor (WV) satellite observations, SHIPS-RII parameters, and upper-level synoptic situations, but were all poorly forecast by both official forecasters and operational models. They are 1997 EPAC Guillermo, 2008 EPAC Hernan, 2008 EPAC Norbert, 2012 EPAC Fabio, 2015 EPAC Hilda, and 2015 North Atlantic (NATL

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