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David R. Ryglicki, Daniel Hodyss, and Gregory Rainwater

.1063/1.868929 Courtney , J. B. , and Coauthors , 2019 : Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change. Part II: Forecasts by operational agencies . Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev. , 8 , 226 – 239 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 . 10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 Darrigol , O. , and U. Frisch , 2008 : From Newton’s mechanics to Euler’s equations . Physica D , 237 , 1855 – 1869 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2007.08.003 . 10.1016/j.physd.2007.08.003 DeMaria , M. , M. Mainelli

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Yi Dai, Sharanya J. Majumdar, and David S. Nolan

understanding the TC resistance to strong environmental shear. By introducing the TCSD, we hope that the outflow can be not only a useful diagnostic to infer the upper-level outflow, but also a nice tool that can be used scientifically and operationally for better understanding and forecasting of TC intensity and structure change. This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the idealized modeling framework and definitions of shear. The main results of the idealized simulations are presented in

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Robert G. Nystrom, Fuqing Zhang, Erin B. Munsell, Scott A. Braun, Jason A. Sippel, Yonghui Weng, and Kerry Emanuel

forecast errors from multiple operational NWP models and NHC official forecasts. The purpose of this study is to understand the reasons for the large track and intensity spread in the ensemble forecasts of Joaquin and identify potential regions of IC errors that contributed to the track bifurcation and large intensity spread. Section 2 will describe the methods used in this study, including the details of the PSU WRF EnKF system. Section 3 will examine the regions of IC errors contributing to the

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Jonathan Martinez, Michael M. Bell, Robert F. Rogers, and James D. Doyle

1. Introduction Accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes remain one of the most difficult weather predictions, even for short lead times. This is in part due to multiscale interactions, which require operational forecast models to precisely capture the evolution of the atmosphere over a vast range of scales in the vicinity of a TC. DeMaria et al. (2014) demonstrated that although intensity forecast errors have not improved as much as track forecast errors over the past

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William A. Komaromi and James D. Doyle

Cyclones (COAMPS-TC; Doyle et al. 2012 , 2014 ). COAMPS-TC is a specialized version of COAMPS, the navy’s operational mesoscale prediction system. The model uses a terrain-following sigma-height coordinate and the nonhydrostatic compressible equations of motion ( Klemp and Wilhelmson 1978 ). A more thorough description of COAMPS is provided by Hodur (1997) and Chen et al. (2003) . In this study, all simulations are run at 5-km horizontal resolution. There are 40 sigma levels in the vertical, with

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