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Kirstin Kober and George C. Craig

fully compressible equations of motion on an Arakawa-C grid that is chosen to have a horizontal resolution of 0.025° (approximately 2800 m) and 50 vertical levels by a terrain following coordinate system (Lorenz grid staggering). Model forecasts are computed over 24 h with a time step of 25 s. The domain over which the model is integrated is smaller than the operational version run at the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and is centered over Germany ( Fig. 1 ). Initial and boundary conditions are

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Tobias Selz

random noise as perturbation. The Tiedtke–Bechtold scheme is the scheme that is operationally used in ICON. These experiments will be discussed later in section 3d . Output of the 300-hPa horizontal wind and height fields was generated on a regular 1° longitude–latitude grid every hour for the ICON-PC and ICON-TB simulations. c. Forecast metrics Since the focus of this study lies on the development of upper-level and midlatitude dynamics we will use the difference kinetic energy (DKE) at 300 hPa as

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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

-scale flow, in particular errors related to latent heat release. Accordingly, an adequate representation of WCBs could reduce systematic forecast errors in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale flow. The only study so far toward a systematic evaluation of WCBs is provided by Madonna et al. (2015) , who investigated operational medium-range European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) forecasts for the three Northern Hemisphere winters of 2002/03, 2006

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Tobias Selz, Lotte Bierdel, and George C. Craig

energy on different scales and examine how the shape of the mesoscale KE spectrum is related to particular dynamical processes. Because simulated spectra can be sensitive to the model configuration (e.g., horizontal and vertical resolution and strength of dissipation; Koshyk and Hamilton 2001 ; Skamarock 2004 ; Augier and Lindborg 2013 ; Brune and Becker 2013 ), we employ routine operational analysis data to reduce the impact of the forecasting system. The paper is structured as follows: In

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Christian Barthlott and Corinna Hoose

numerical simulations were produced with version 5.3 of the nonhydrostatic limited-area atmospheric prediction model provided by the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) ( Schättler et al. 2016 ). The COSMO model is used by the German Weather Service for operational weather forecasting; its operational domain covers Germany, parts of the neighboring countries, and most of the Alps ( Fig. 1 ). In contrast to the operational setup ( Baldauf et al. 2011 ), we use a sophisticated double

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Stephan Rasp, Tobias Selz, and George C. Craig

accordingly reduces the probability of such parcels existing. This can lead to systematic biases in model behavior. In other words, there is a disparity between the convection, which is assumed to be resolved, and the process responsible for triggering it, namely, boundary layer turbulence, which is not resolved. Note that operational models such as the COSMO model, which is specifically designed for precipitation forecasts, are often tuned to produce the correct diurnal cycle of precipitation at the

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Tobias Selz, Lucas Fischer, and George C. Craig

for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) model is the current limited-area numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service (DWD) for operational short-range weather forecasts ( Baldauf et al. 2011 ). The operational spatial resolution of 2.8 km is used in our simulations, in which deep moist convection and the associated feedback mechanisms to the larger scales of motion are considered to be explicitly resolved. Shallow convection (nonprecipitating, depth less than 250 hPa) is still

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