Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 1,180 items for :

  • Operational forecasting x
  • Journal of Hydrometeorology x
  • All content x
Clear All
Thomas C. Pagano, Andrew W. Wood, Maria-Helena Ramos, Hannah L. Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Martyn P. Clark, Michael Cranston, Dmitri Kavetski, Thibault Mathevet, Soroosh Sorooshian, and Jan S. Verkade

countries is staggering, with disasters routinely displacing from tens to hundreds of thousands of people; for example, nearly 2000 people were dead or missing after the Philippines typhoon of 2012, with evacuations exceeding 780 000 people. Droughts can be just as damaging, with the U.S. drought of 2012 costing nearly $80 billion (U.S. dollars). Some of these consequences are avoidable through advance warning, emergency response, and other preparations; thus, operational river forecasters can help

Full access
Francesco Silvestro, Nicola Rebora, and Luca Ferraris

atmospheric observations. The second is that, in order to cope with operational procedures and decision-making responsibility, hydrologists are allowed, in certain cases, to use “certified” predictions from (human) expert forecasters. These forecasters, on the basis of their knowledge, can analyze different meteorological models and estimate their reliability in different synoptic conditions and different local meteorological situations. This results in issuing a QPF that synthesizes a large quantity of

Full access
Haksu Lee, Yu Zhang, Dong-Jun Seo, Robert J. Kuligowski, David Kitzmiller, and Robert Corby

) could augment operational river flow forecasting for some basins outside of radar coverage and in sparsely gauged areas. They will need to be used in a manner that considers their own limitations, of course, including complex terrain (orographic enhancements of convection are captured, but seeder–feeder enhancements are not) and snow cover [which precludes microwave (MW)-based retrievals but still allows infrared (IR)-based estimates]. Among real-time multisatellite QPE algorithms, this study uses

Full access
Jonathan J. Gourley and Humberto Vergara

1. Introduction The study of Herman and Schumacher (2018 , hereafter HS18 ) used radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from different algorithms and compared exceedance thresholds to flash flood reports (FFRs) and flash flood warnings (FFWs). One objective of HS18 was to provide the best practices for using the tools in an operational flash flood monitoring and forecasting environment. The commentary presented herein is motivated by the following points: QPE algorithms in

Restricted access
A. Sankarasubramanian, Upmanu Lall, and Susan Espinueva

diagnostic analyses for each forecasting time step. Given that many research institutions and agencies are issuing climate forecasts on a monthly basis using general circulation models (GCMs), an alternate approach would be to utilize GCM-predicted fields to develop operational streamflow forecasts. However, GCM-predicted fields are typically available at larger spatial scales (2.5° × 2.5°), which need to be downscaled to obtain streamflow forecasts. Dynamical downscaling, a physical approach of nesting

Full access
Felipe Quintero, Witold F. Krajewski, and Marcela Rojas

1. Introduction In principle, distributed hydrological models allow river discharge forecasts at every channel in a drainage network. The spatial and temporal distribution of peak flows across the channels is a reflection of the interactions among the spatial and temporal variability of the model input (e.g., rainfall, snowmelt), the soil properties controlling the generation of overland flow, and the structure of the drainage network (e.g., Lu et al. 2017 ; Mantilla et al. 2006 ; Ayalew et

Free access
Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, Greg E. Mann, Eric J. Anderson, Philip Y. Chu, Lindsay E. Fitzpatrick, Stanley G. Benjamin, Eric P. James, Tatiana G. Smirnova, Curtis R. Alexander, and David M. Wright

parameterizations of planetary and surface boundary layers ( Conrick et al. 2015 ; Minder et al. 2020 ). These previous studies collectively indicate that the turbulent heat fluxes (i.e., heat and moisture fluxes from the lakes) are critical factors that need to be represented well in the models to accurately simulate LES bands. Fujisaki-Manome et al. (2017) showed that operational forecast models present high uncertainty in turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes over Lake Erie (i.e., heat and moisture

Open access
C. Bryan Young, A. Allen Bradley, Witold F. Krajewski, Anton Kruger, and Mark L. Morrissey

1. Introduction In recent years, the National Weather Service (NWS) has installed the Next-Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system at forecast offices across the country. The NEXRAD system consists of a network of Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars ( Crum et al. 1993 ). Reflectivity observations from each WSR-88D are used to generate many operational products, including estimates of precipitation developed with the NEXRAD precipitation processing system ( Klazura and Imy

Full access
Chris Kidd, Erin Dawkins, and George Huffman

paper assesses how well the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast model simulates the mean annual and seasonal diurnal rainfall cycles relative to the satellite-derived Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Merged Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and Precipitation Radar (PR) products across the global tropics (40°N–40°S 180°W–180°E) over a 7-yr time period (2004–11). This is the region where models typically show the least accuracy at simulating

Restricted access
Thomas E. Adams III and Randel Dymond

is to determine the utility of using hydrologic ensemble mean or median forecasts of river stage from the NOAA/NWS Meteorological Model-Based Ensemble Forecast System (MMEFS), described in Adams and Ostrowski (2010) , as an alternative to current, operational, single-valued deterministic hydrologic stage forecasts at the OHRFC and, possibly, elsewhere. Section 2 of this paper describes the real-time hydrologic forecasting experiment used in this study. Model simulations are restricted to

Full access