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Tamara U. Wall, Timothy J. Brown, and Nicholas J. Nauslar

additional context and insight from the operational side of issuing SWFs. Based on their suggestions, we scheduled and conducted a smaller and more focused second round of phone interviews in 2015 with seven NWS forecasters. The geographic distribution of these interviews matched that from the first round of interviews. The forecasters were selected from within their geographic region using the snowball sampling method ( Marshall and Rossman 2015 ). We prepared a semistructured interview guide for both

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Katie A. Wilson, Pamela L. Heinselman, Patrick S. Skinner, Jessica J. Choate, and Kim E. Klockow-McClain

1. Introduction Uncertainty is inherent in forecasts of any natural system, including the weather. The limited predictability of the atmosphere and the resulting initial value problem thus calls for an ensemble of numerical weather predictions that can provide probabilistic forecast information ( Bauer et al. 2015 ). Advancements in scientific understanding, computing resources, and observations have led to the development of operational numerical weather prediction systems that span the

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Sally Potter, Sara Harrison, and Peter Kreft

services (NMHSs) to use impact-based warnings to bridge the gap between forecasts and possible impacts of impending hazards ( WMO 2015 ). This supports the shift toward multihazard early warning systems becoming “people centered” [ Basher 2006 ; United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ( UNISDR) 2015 ], empowering “individuals and communities threatened by hazards to act in sufficient time and in an appropriate manner to reduce the possibility of personal injury and illness, loss of

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Stephen M. Strader, Alex M. Haberlie, and Alexandra G. Loitz

, Springer Science and Business Media, 252 pp. 10.1007/b100669 Harrison , D. R. , and C. D. Karstens , 2017 : A climatology of operational storm-based warnings: A geospatial analysis . Wea. Forecasting , 32 , 47 – 60 , https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0146.1 . 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0146.1 Hoekstra , S. , K. Klockow , R. Riley , J. Brotzge , H. Brooks , and S. Erickson , 2011 : A preliminary look at the social perspective of Warn-On-Forecast: Preferred tornado warning lead time and

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Jessica Kuonen, Flaxen Conway, and Ted Strub

: Strategic planning for operational oceanography. Ocean Forecasting: Conceptual Basis and Applications , N. Pinardi and J. Woods, Eds., Springer, 1–17. 10.1007/978-3-662-22648-3_1 Furman , C. , C. Roncoli , T. Crane , and G. Hoogenboom , 2011 : Beyond the “fit”: Introducing climate forecasts among organic farmers in Georgia (United States) . Climatic Change , 109 , 791 – 799 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0238-y . 10.1007/s10584-011-0238-y Guston , D. H. , 2001 : Boundary

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Stefan von Gruenigen, Saskia Willemse, and Thomas Frei

the Swiss road transport system, and Lazo and Chestnut (2002) analyzed the economic value of weather forecasts to the U.S. household sector. Moreover, the literature on the methods for assessing the economic benefits of meteorological service provision is also rather broad, as the following examples show: Frei (2010) , Leviäkangas (2009) , Leviäkangas and Hautala (2009) , Gunasekera (2004) , Freebairn and Zillmann (2002) , and Anaman et al. 1995 . In weather-sensitive activities

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Robert Munroe, Burrell Montz, and Scott Curtis

, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.59 . 10.1002/met.59 Demeritt , D. , S. Nobert , H. Closea , and F. Papperberger , 2010 : Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting . Meteor. Appl. , 17 , 209 – 222 , https://doi.org/10.1002/met.194 . 10.1002/met.194 Dillon , R. L. , C. H. Tinsley , and M. Cronin , 2011 : Why near-miss events can decrease an individual’s protective responses to hurricanes . Risk Anal. , 31 , 440 – 449 , https://doi.org/10.1111/j

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Kevin Barjenbruch, Carol M. Werner, Randall Graham, Cody Oppermann, Glenn Blackwelder, Jeff Williams, Glen Merrill, Scott Jensen, and Justin Connolly

to ascertain whether it corroborates any of the self-reported behavior change. The project is a preliminary step in determining how drivers obtain winter storm information, how well forecasters communicate information, and what information appears to influence driving decisions. This article begins with a brief description of an innovative collaboration for improving weather and road condition forecasting and information dissemination. It continues with a literature review on the practical and

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Brooke Fisher Liu, Anita Atwell Seate, Irina Iles, and Emina Herovic

public (e.g., Brotzge and Donner 2013 ; Casteel and Downing 2016 ; Liu et al. 2019 ; Perreault et al. 2014 ). However, research has been less prolific in understanding how forecasters decide to disseminate severe weather risk communication ( Brown et al. 2016 ; Daipha 2015 ). Understanding this process can provide fruitful avenues for improvements to the science of communicating weather information. Weather spotters are an important component of the warning system. Since the 1970s, the National

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Andrea L. Taylor, Astrid Kause, Barbara Summers, and Melanie Harrowsmith

weather phenomena (e.g., strong winds, heavy rainfall) to discount warnings on the basis that their region is better able to cope with severe weather than others. Indeed, evidence indicates that people draw on past experience to reinterpret weather warnings. For instance, it has been consistently found that people presented with deterministic forecasts draw inferences about the uncertainty surrounding these ( Morss et al. 2008 ; Peachey et al. 2013 ). This type of reinterpretation is appropriate in

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