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Leah S. Campbell, W. James Steenburgh, Peter G. Veals, Theodore W. Letcher, and Justin R. Minder

. D. Hall , 1994 : Numerical simulations of convective snow clouds over the Sea of Japan: 2-dimensional simulations of mixed-layer development and convective snow cloud formation . J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , 72 , 43 – 62 . Nakai , S. , and T. Endoh , 1995 : Observation of snowfall and airflow over a low mountain barrier . J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , 73 , 183 – 199 . Niziol , T. A. , 1987 : Operational forecasting of lake effect snowfall in western and central New York . Wea

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Peter G. Veals, W. James Steenburgh, and Leah S. Campbell

and Kristovich 2002 ). The strength of the fluxes and height of the cap in turn affect the behavior and intensity of the lake-effect convection. Larger fluxes and a higher cap enable deeper, stronger convection and greater LPE downwind of the lake (e.g., Braham 1983 ; Niziol 1987 ; Hjelmfelt 1990 ; Byrd et al. 1991 ; Smith and Boris 2017 ). For operational forecasting, the potential for boundary layer growth and lake-effect convection is often assessed using estimates of the lake

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W. James Steenburgh and Leah S. Campbell

played an unexpectedly prominent role in simulations exploring orographic effects over Tug Hill ( Campbell and Steenburgh 2017 ). In the next section, we describe the datasets and modeling system used for our analysis. Sections 3 – 6 then use operational analyses, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations, trajectories, and frontogenesis diagnostics to show how the large-scale flow, shape of the Lake Ontario shoreline, and differential surface heating and roughness contribute to the

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Peter G. Veals and W. James Steenburgh

to provide new insights into lake-effect precipitation east of Lake Ontario and over Tug Hill, with relevance for operational forecasting, regional climate applications, and improved knowledge of lake-effect and orographic precipitation processes. The methods used for the radar-based climatology are described in section 2 , with detailed analysis of the regional lake-effect characteristics and influence of Tug Hill presented in section 3 . Conclusions and future work are summarized in section

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Leah S. Campbell and W. James Steenburgh

1. Introduction Lake-effect snowstorms generated over the Great Lakes of North America and other bodies of water can produce intense, extremely localized snowfall (e.g., Andersson and Nilsson 1990 ; Steenburgh et al. 2000 ; Eito et al. 2005 ; Laird et al. 2009 ; Kindap 2010 ). Forecasters still struggle, however, to accurately predict the timing and location of the heaviest snowfall during lake-effect events, which disrupt local and regional transportation, education, utilities, and

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Jake P. Mulholland, Jeffrey Frame, Stephen W. Nesbitt, Scott M. Steiger, Karen A. Kosiba, and Joshua Wurman

. Rev. , 143 , 4422 – 4442 , doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0117.1 . 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0117.1 Mueller , C. K. , and R. E. Carbone , 1987 : Dynamics of a thunderstorm outflow . J. Atmos. Sci. , 44 , 1879 – 1898 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<1879:DOATO>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<1879:DOATO>2.0.CO;2 Niziol , T. A. , 1987 : Operational forecasting of lake effect snowfall in western and central New York . Wea. Forecasting , 2 , 310 – 321 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1987)002<0310:OFOLES

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Karen A. Kosiba, Joshua Wurman, Kevin Knupp, Kyle Pennington, and Paul Robinson

) Buffalo, NY, accessed 3 December 2019, https://www.weather.gov/buf/lake1415_stormb.html . Niziol , T. A. , 1987 : Operational forecasting of lake effect snowfall in western and central New York . Wea. Forecasting , 2 , 310 – 321 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1987)002<0310:OFOLES>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0434(1987)002<0310:OFOLES>2.0.CO;2 Niziol , T. A. , W. R. Snyder , and J. S. Waldstreicher , 1995 : Winter weather forecasting throughout the eastern United States. Part IV: Lake

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Philip T. Bergmaier and Bart Geerts

-color imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Terra polar-orbiting satellite (ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php). A false-color image was chosen as it allows low-level clouds to be visually distinguished from underlying snow cover or lake ice. In addition, synoptic maps were generated with 12-km North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) analysis data archived on the NCDC National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) website

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