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Marlene Baumgart, Michael Riemer, Volkmar Wirth, Franziska Teubler, and Simon T. K. Lang

. Res. , 101 , 1435 – 1456 , https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD02674 . 10.1029/95JD02674 Bauer , P. , A. Thorpe , and G. Brunet , 2015 : The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction . Nature , 525 , 47 – 55 , https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956 . 10.1038/nature14956 Boer , G. J. , 1984 : A spectral analysis of predictability and error in an operational forecast system . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 112 , 1183 – 1197 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1183:ASAOPA>2.0.CO;2 . 10

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Kirstin Kober and George C. Craig

fully compressible equations of motion on an Arakawa-C grid that is chosen to have a horizontal resolution of 0.025° (approximately 2800 m) and 50 vertical levels by a terrain following coordinate system (Lorenz grid staggering). Model forecasts are computed over 24 h with a time step of 25 s. The domain over which the model is integrated is smaller than the operational version run at the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and is centered over Germany ( Fig. 1 ). Initial and boundary conditions are

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Julia H. Keller, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, Heather M. Archambault, Lance Bosart, James D. Doyle, Jenni L. Evans, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Kyle Griffin, Patrick A. Harr, Naoko Kitabatake, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon, Julian F. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Ryan D. Torn, and Fuqing Zhang

transport, which may impact both the occurrence frequency and predictability of subseasonal regimes on basin to hemispheric length scales. The Subseasonal to Seasonal Project database ( www.s2sprediction.net ; Vitart et al. 2017 ), which provides access to subseasonal to seasonal forecasts from 11 operational centers, could be a valuable resource for such investigations. On still longer time scales, the influence of a warming climate on the downstream impact of ET, in particular, is another aspect that

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

; moreover, the forecast became rather poor after a lead time of as little as 5 days. The latter result seems to be at odds with the commonly held view that large-scale phenomena such as RWPs should be predictable on a rather long time scale. However, this evaluation was for a single case only involving a single forecast model; further systematic studies are required to possibly generalize these results. Regarding the waveguide, several operational forecast models are fraught with a spurious decrease of

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Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

wave breaking toward the end of the life cycle resulted in the formation of a cutoff cyclone over Europe, which led to the heavy precipitation event. The rain was poorly forecast by the operational centers even on the relatively short time scale of a few days ( Grazzini and van der Grijn 2002 ). Assuming that large-scale and long-lived dynamical features should generally be predictable on a time scale longer than just a few days, this suggest that there may be room for improvements concerning the

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