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Lisa-Ann Quandt, Julia H. Keller, Olivia Martius, and Sarah C. Jones

information about surface impacts from available operational ensemble forecasts. We address the following research questions. Does low predictability of the blocking transfer to a low predictability of the associated high-impact weather? What are the main development scenarios of the block in the forecast? Can the scenarios be linked to specific impacts or a lack thereof? We focus on the three major developmental stages of the block’s life cycle: the onset phase, the mature stage, and the decay phase

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Lars Wiegand, Arwen Twitchett, Cornelia Schwierz, and Peter Knippertz

:// ) established a new data archive called the THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) that comprises ensemble predictions from different meteorological centers. Daily updated TIGGE forecast products and verifications are provided by Matsueda and Nakazawa online ( ). TIGGE was initiated at a workshop at the ECMWF in 2005 ( Richardson et al. 2005 ) to enhance collaborations in the development of EPSs between operational centers and universities by

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