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Jeffrey M. Chagnon and Suzanne L. Gray

), diabatic Rossby waves (e.g., Parker and Thorpe 1995 ; Moore and Montgomery 2004 ; Moore et al. 2013 ), and forecast error growth (e.g., Brennan et al. 2008 ; Davies and Didone 2013 ). In the absence of frictional and diabatic processes, PV is materially conserved. Therefore, PV provides a convenient means to characterize the large-scale structure of the atmosphere and its evolution in mid- and high latitudes where the planetary vorticity is nonnegligible. Climatologically, PV increases with height

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Ross N. Bannister

guide operational developers to the best localization scheme. It is also worth pointing out here that forecast ensembles can also be used to calibrate the matrix in variational or hybrid systems ( Fisher 2003 ; Buehner et al. 2010 ; Fairbairn et al. 2014 ), and this process is likely to be more accurate if the forecasts are appropriately balanced due to improved localization. Implementing a scheme like ECO-RAP in an operational scheme may be beneficial, but as with all modifications to an

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C. Dearden, G. Vaughan, T. Tsai, and J.-P. Chen

model performance, we offer some insight into the response of the model to different levels of microphysical complexity, and discuss the implications for the parameterization of ice processes in operational weather forecast models. 2. Model description All the numerical simulations presented here were conducted using version 3.4.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Each simulation was configured with a single domain at 5-km horizontal grid spacing. This resolution is sufficiently

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Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Laura H. Baker, Suzanne L. Gray, John Methven, and Robert S. Plant

influenced subsequent operational forecasts. However, the simulation shown here starts from the global Met Office analysis for 0000 UTC 8 December 2011 and therefore is independent of the dropsonde data. The first dropsonde leg (1130–1234 UTC) was from south to north toward the low pressure center (D–C in Fig. 3b ). During this leg the aircraft flew from just north of the surface cold front, crossing above the cloud bands into the cyclone center. Surface pressure measured by the tenth sonde was 959 hPa

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Geraint Vaughan, Bogdan Antonescu, David M. Schultz, and Christopher Dearden

small-scale features in a data-sparse area was necessary for accurate forecasting of the rainband. Section 2 describes the datasets and mesoscale model simulation used in this study. Operational and campaign observations used in this study are described in sections 2a and 2b , respectively. The model and its configuration for this study are described in section 2c . An overview of the synoptic and mesoscale environment in which the rainband evolved is provided in section 3 , and the aircraft

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Matthew R. Clark and Douglas J. Parker

narrow rainband . Meteor. Atmos. Phys. , 46 , 123 – 154 , doi: 10.1007/BF01027339 . Koch , S. E. , and C. O’Handley , 1997 : Operational forecasting and detection of mesoscale gravity waves . Wea. Forecasting , 12 , 253 – 281 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0253:OFADOM>2.0.CO;2 . Koch , S. E. , and S. Saleeby , 2001 : An automated system for the analysis of gravity waves and other mesoscale phenomena . Wea. Forecasting , 16 , 661 – 679 , doi: 10

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Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Suzanne L. Gray, and John Methven

et al. 2005 ). The model configuration, vertical and horizontal resolutions, and the domain used here are the same as in Martínez-Alvarado et al. (2014b) . The model description follows Martínez-Alvarado et al. (2014b) , with minor modifications to accommodate details relevant to this work. The simulations have been performed on a limited-area domain corresponding to the Met Office’s recently operational North Atlantic–European domain with 600 × 300 grid points. The horizontal grid spacing is 0

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Ben Harvey, John Methven, Chloe Eagle, and Humphrey Lean

found to be narrower than can be resolved by current NWP models. Therefore, the modeled frontal widths are typically set artificially by (implicit or explicit) numerical diffusive effects, rather than by resolved physical motions. The degree to which the prediction of associated high-impact weather is affected by this limitation is not understood. Operational local-area forecast models are now approaching convection-permitting grid spacings of O (1) km ( Clark et al. 2016 ). In such models deep

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