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Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang

have demonstrated the sensitivity to features such as atmospheric bores, LLJs, elevated frontal zones, mesoscale regions of elevated ascent, and land–atmosphere interactions during the previous day. Therefore, the goal of this study is to determine the sensitivity of nocturnal convection forecasts to different aspects of the ensemble data assimilation (DA) and forecast system design in order to improve its configuration for the unique foci of PECAN. In particular, this paper will focus on the

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Jonathan E. Thielen and William A. Gallus Jr.

have urged caution with reducing grid spacing to certain levels. For instance, Schumacher (2015) demonstrated that, for the destructive tornado/flash flood case of 31 May–1 June 2013 in central Oklahoma, a 4-km grid spacing simulation performed best, and that increased-resolution runs experienced degraded performance. This was due to the planetary boundary layer schemes operating with grid scales of the same order as the turbulent motions, a situation Wyngaard (2004) terms the “terra incognita

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Sean Stelten and William A. Gallus Jr.

as several runs of a 4-km WRF-ARW model using four different planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, are verified to study the predictability of these initiation events. The goal of the present study is to identify the basic characteristics of and prediction deficiencies associated with nocturnal elevated CI. 2. Data and methodology a. Classification of CI events This study examines likely elevated pristine nocturnal CI (PNCI) cases during May–August of 2015. Several dates were omitted from the

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