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Jeanne M. Thibeault and Anji Seth

of models analyzed here can only suggest which models are more or less credible. Process evaluation of a larger suite of models, planned for future work, may identify model credibility with more confidence. In cases where it is not possible to clearly differentiate between models, knowledge of model errors and biases may help to inform decision making by identifying process-based sources of uncertainty in multimodel projections. A potential limitation of this study is that questions remain about

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J. David Neelin, Baird Langenbrunner, Joyce E. Meyerson, Alex Hall, and Neil Berg

onto the coast. The increase in precipitation in this region contrasts with the decrease that occurs at these latitudes over most of the western and central Pacific. Because this feature is potentially important to California water resource planning but occurs at regional scale for a region that in prior assessments had high uncertainty, the remainder of this paper will aim to flesh out the factors that might assist in assessing to what degree it can be trusted. We will refer to this region as the

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Brian A. Colle, Zhenhai Zhang, Kelly A. Lombardo, Edmund Chang, Ping Liu, and Minghua Zhang

-yr climatology of East Coast winter storms (nor'easters) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global reanalysis and found interannual variations associated with ENSO (El Niño favors more nor'easters) as well as relatively large interdecadal variations. Future planning for the protection of life and property in this populated Northeast region will require more knowledge of how the intensity, frequency, and track of midlatitude cyclones will change during the next several

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