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Richard Seager, Jennifer Nakamura, and Mingfang Ting

regions of North America will be even less predictable than in the southern Great Plains. To some extent, prediction skill could improve as models and SST forecasts improve but the strong role of internal atmospheric variability will limit forecast skill on the seasonal time scale. Hence, the best advice is that those affected by drought should always have contingency plans for onset and termination in place and not wait for seasonal forecasts before being prepared. Acknowledgments This work was

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Yaling Liu, Dongdong Chen, Soukayna Mouatadid, Xiaoliang Lu, Min Chen, Yu Cheng, Zhenghui Xie, Binghao Jia, Huan Wu, and Pierre Gentine

research topics such as water and carbon fluxes in agroecosystems, and land–atmosphere interactions. Second, we shed light on the effects of different cropping patterns on SM and seek alternative cropping patterns that may alleviate SM decline. This exploration will prompt decision making in ameliorating soil water stress and inform adaption plans in an increasingly water-scarce future. 2. Methods a. Neural network The neural network used in this work is a deep feed forward NN, which consists of

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