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T. Ghosh and T. N. Krishnamurti

least for longer forecast leads, that neural network–based consensus forecasts may be depended upon for better guidance. The utility of this lies in the fact that better forecasts for longer leads help with proper planning for evacuation, if necessary, as well as disaster management planning. b. Forecast skills Comparison of the forecast skills of different models, along with the ANN-based combined forecasts, to climatology–persistence (OCD5) was done. The computations of skills were made using the

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Robert L. Creasey and Russell L. Elsberry

field experiment of the HDSS sonde drop locations (blue circles) from the NASA WB-57 during Hurricane Joaquin on 4 Oct 2015 overlaid on a GOES infrared image at 1915 UTC. The blue lines with small red dots are planned flight-track and dropsonde locations,and the yellow lines with the blue circles are the actual flight-track and drop locations. Along most of the (first) south-to-north overpass of the center and the second east-to-west overpass, the HDSS sondes were deployed at ~42-s intervals, which

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James D. Doyle, Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Joel W. Feldmeier, Ronald J. Ferek, Mark Beaubien, Michael M. Bell, Daniel L. Cecil, Robert L. Creasey, Patrick Duran, Russell L. Elsberry, William A. Komaromi, John Molinari, David R. Ryglicki, Daniel P. Stern, Christopher S. Velden, Xuguang Wang, Todd Allen, Bradford S. Barrett, Peter G. Black, Jason P. Dunion, Kerry A. Emanuel, Patrick A. Harr, Lee Harrison, Eric A. Hendricks, Derrick Herndon, William Q. Jeffries, Sharanya J. Majumdar, James A. Moore, Zhaoxia Pu, Robert F. Rogers, Elizabeth R. Sanabia, Gregory J. Tripoli, and Da-Lin Zhang

aircraft, aircraft support equipment, aircraft personnel, instrument personnel, and a mission science representative to the forward-operating base. Daily planning teleconferences among the mission scientists and forecasters were held to review the latest model forecasts and make aircraft deployment decisions. Such meetings were held from late July through late October, covering as much of the hurricane season as feasible to maximize observational opportunities. Science flight planning and management

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Russell L. Elsberry, Eric A. Hendricks, Christopher S. Velden, Michael M. Bell, Melinda Peng, Eleanor Casas, and Qingyun Zhao

available. It is therefore concluded that the full information content of the Himawari-8 or GOES-16 AMV observations will not be realized until the data assimilation/modeling system is redesigned to utilize these high temporal and spatial resolution wind datasets. Although a global 4DVAR system such as the Navy Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS-AR; Xu et al. 2005 ) has a better capability to handle more continuous AMV observations, the present plan at Naval Research Laboratory–Monterey is only to

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Peter Black, Lee Harrison, Mark Beaubien, Robert Bluth, Roy Woods, Andrew Penny, Robert W. Smith, and James D. Doyle

were approximately 2.5 h each, approximately 1100–1330 UTC, timed to overlap with early morning 1200 UTC NWS radiosonde ascents from CRP and BRO. The first two shakedown flights identified several integration problems on the new aircraft platform. These were corrected, resulting in a third successful flight on 19 November. Planned (yellow) and actual (red) flight tracks for the third flight on 19 November are shown in Fig. 15 , superimposed upon a BRO radar image and a GOES IR satellite image

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David R. Ryglicki, Joshua H. Cossuth, Daniel Hodyss, and James D. Doyle

172 were named storms, of which 91 were hurricanes, and of which 42 were major hurricanes ( Landsea and Franklin 2013 ). Of the 42 majors, 10 underwent “atypical” RI. While this sample is small, and while being cognizant of the fact that a proper climatological analysis is reserved for a future study (including planned automated analyses of satellite imagery), this simple SHIPS analysis indicates that a moderate fraction (20%–25%) of the TCs that undergo RI to major hurricane status in EPAC follow

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