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Andreas Schäfler, George Craig, Heini Wernli, Philippe Arbogast, James D. Doyle, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, John Methven, Gwendal Rivière, Felix Ament, Maxi Boettcher, Martina Bramberger, Quitterie Cazenave, Richard Cotton, Susanne Crewell, Julien Delanoë, Andreas Dörnbrack, André Ehrlich, Florian Ewald, Andreas Fix, Christian M. Grams, Suzanne L. Gray, Hans Grob, Silke Groß, Martin Hagen, Ben Harvey, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Christian Lemmerz, Oliver Lux, Linus Magnusson, Bernhard Mayer, Mario Mech, Richard Moore, Jacques Pelon, Julian Quinting, Stephan Rahm, Markus Rapp, Marc Rautenhaus, Oliver Reitebuch, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Harald Sodemann, Thomas Spengler, Geraint Vaughan, Manfred Wendisch, Martin Wirth, Benjamin Witschas, Kevin Wolf, and Tobias Zinner

the NATs offers high flexibility for the flight planning; however, the base height of the NATs is often too low to observe the tropopause and jet-related maximum wind speeds. Furthermore, the location of the NATs changes from day to day, depending on the forecast wind situation. Height changes and the release of dropsondes from high altitudes are not possible in the NAT area. The requirement of air traffic control (ATC) authorities to have detailed flight plans 2–3 days in advance created

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Marlene Baumgart, Michael Riemer, Volkmar Wirth, Franziska Teubler, and Simon T. K. Lang

“forecast bust” from Rodwell et al. (2013) ], however, indicate that near-tropopause dynamics is, in all of these cases, of large importance to the error growth. Arguably, the relative importance of the processes governing error growth is regime dependent. A systematic investigation of different synoptic regimes is planned to gain deeper insight into this dependence. Furthermore, we plan to adopt the method presented herein to investigate the divergence of the members in an ensemble forecast system

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Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

science plan. WMO/TD-1246, WWRP/THORPEX 2, Commission for Atmospheric Sciences, THORPEX International Science Steering Committee, WMO, 51 pp. [Available online at https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/CD_ROM_international_science_plan_v3.pdf .] Snyder , C. , W. Skamarock , and R. Rotunno , 1991 : A comparison of primitive-equation and semigeostrophic simulations of baroclinic waves . J. Atmos. Sci. , 48 , 2179 – 2194 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<2179:ACOPEA>2.0.CO;2

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Roderick van der Linden, Andreas H. Fink, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Tan Phan-Van

. Zipser , 2010 : Contribution of tropical cyclones to the global precipitation from eight seasons of TRMM data: Regional, seasonal, and interannual variations . J. Climate , 23 , 1526 – 1543 , doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3303.1 . Jones , S. , and B. Golding , 2014 : HIWeather: A research activity on High Impact Weather within the World Weather Research Programme. Implementation Plan, WWRP, 87 pp. [Available online at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/HIW_IP_v1_4.pdf .] Kiladis

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Stephan Rasp, Tobias Selz, and George C. Craig

, doi: 10.1002/qj.827 . Schäfler , A. , M. Boettcher , C. M. Grams , M. Rautenhaus , H. Sodemann , and H. Wernli , 2014 : Planning aircraft measurements within a warm conveyor belt . Weather , 69 , 161 – 166 , doi: 10.1002/wea.2245 . Selz , T. , and G. C. Craig , 2015a : Simulation of upscale error growth with a stochastic convection scheme . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 42 , 3056 – 3062 , doi: 10.1002/2015GL063525 . Selz , T. , and G. C. Craig , 2015b : Upscale error

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Thomas Engel, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, Gregor Pante, and Jan Bliefernicht

currents within a short time. In addition, insufficient urban planning urges poor people to settle in flood-prone areas of cities ( Hardoy et al. 2001 ; Nchito 2007 ; Douglas et al. 2008 ) with insufficient infrastructure, canalization, and waste removal. In addition, standing water favors outbreaks of waterborne diseases such as cholera ( IPCC 2007 ), and flood damages entail shortages in the food supply ( Hartill 2008 ). Both demographic and climatic factors could exacerbate this situation in the

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Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

conveyor belt . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 141 , 299 – 310 , https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2360 . 10.1002/qj.2360 Schäfler , A. , M. Boettcher , C. M. Grams , M. Rautenhaus , H. Sodemann , and H. Wernli , 2014 : Planning aircraft measurements within a warm conveyor belt . Weather , 69 , 161 – 166 , https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2245 . 10.1002/wea.2245 Schiemann , R ., and Coauthors , 2017 : The resolution sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere blocking in four 25-km atmospheric

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

. Holopainen, Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 167–191. 10.1007/978-1-944970-33-8_10 Shapiro , M. A. , and A. J. Thorpe , 2004 : THORPEX international science plan, version 3. WMO/TD-1246, WWRP/THORPEX 2, 57 pp., https://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/WMO_TD1246e.pdf . Shapiro , M. A. , and Coauthors , 1999 : A planetary-scale to mesoscale perspective of the life cycles of extratropical cyclones: The bridge between theory and observations. The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones , M. A. Shapiro and S. Grønas

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