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Roland J. Viger, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, John W. Jones, and Gary R. Buell

scenarios, “compact,” “sprawl,” and “planned.” In the present study, a physically based model is used to simulate the hydrology of a larger, predominantly rural basin in the southeastern United States based on GCM forecasts of climate and detailed simulations of land-cover change. 4. Hydrologic model This study uses PRMS, which is a physically based, distributed-parameter watershed model. Distributed-parameter capabilities are provided by partitioning a watershed into units, using characteristics such

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Mark C. Mastin, Katherine J. Chase, and R. W. Dudley

-term planning for reservoir design and water-management strategies ( Adeloye et al. 1999 ; Draper and Kundell 2007 ), despite incomplete knowledge about the volumetric change in snowpack that can be expected and how snowpack changes may vary regionally and locally. A key measure of snowpack condition used by resource managers in the western United States is the snow-water equivalent (SWE) on 1 April ( Serreze et al. 1999 ). Researchers have adopted this measure in climate-change studies to characterize the

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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

use of previously developed hydrologic models and the downscaling technique used, the results presented here should be considered a heuristic exercise, showing potential results and techniques that can be used to provide valuable information to resource managers struggling to plan for the future in the face of climate change. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey through the Global Change Research and Development Program. Ken Potter and Faith Fitzpatrick provided

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P. C. D. Milly and Krista A. Dunne

1. Introduction Climate-change experiments with numerical climate models produce projections of changes in the water cycle. These projections include changes in fluxes (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff) and storage (snowpack, soil water, and groundwater). The value of these projections for long-term water-resource planning and risk analysis is compromised by many factors, but here we focus on three problems: 1) the biases in the modeled historical climates, 2) the coarse

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

-cover dynamics such as forest fire or insect damage. They also do not answer the question of whether the potentially adverse effects due to climate change can be mitigated with careful land-use planning. Thus, the interrelated effects of land use and climate change may exacerbate future adverse changes in the basin beyond what is shown in this work. However, potentially adverse effects due to climate change and related changes to water use in the basin might be offset by potential land-use practices that

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David M. Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger

1. Introduction Knowledge of historical and future hydrologic trends is needed to develop and evaluate regional water-management strategies. In New England, the amount of groundwater discharge to streams and rivers (base flow), the amount of snow, and the timing of snowmelt are especially important factors for evaluating, managing, and planning for the health of in-stream habitat and recreation. This knowledge needs to include patterns of hydrologic change in both time and space. Regional

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