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Munehiko Yamaguchi, Ryota Sakai, Masayuki Kyoda, Takuya Komori, and Takashi Kadowaki

performed with a confidence level of 95% shows that differences between MEAN and CTL is significant for 5-day predictions ( Figs. 6c,d ). JMA plans to provide public users with 5-day track forecasts. TEPS is expected to improve the deterministic TC track forecasts over the extended forecast range (note that JMA/GSM is operated 4 times a day, 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC, but the forecast range is 84 h except for 1200 UTC, where the forecast range is 216 h). d. Confidence information Any variable that

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Chun-Chieh Wu, Shin-Gan Chen, Jan-Huey Chen, Kun-Hsuan Chou, and Po-Hsiung Lin

developed for typhoon surveillance missions in order to significantly improve numerical forecasts. Targeted observation has been an active research topic in numerical weather prediction with plans for field programs, tests of new observing systems, and application of new concepts in predictability and data assimilation ( Langland 2005 ). In addition, targeted observation is one of the highlighted issues recommended by World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO’s) Sixth International Workshop on Tropical

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Peter Black, Lee Harrison, Mark Beaubien, Robert Bluth, Roy Woods, Andrew Penny, Robert W. Smith, and James D. Doyle

were approximately 2.5 h each, approximately 1100–1330 UTC, timed to overlap with early morning 1200 UTC NWS radiosonde ascents from CRP and BRO. The first two shakedown flights identified several integration problems on the new aircraft platform. These were corrected, resulting in a third successful flight on 19 November. Planned (yellow) and actual (red) flight tracks for the third flight on 19 November are shown in Fig. 15 , superimposed upon a BRO radar image and a GOES IR satellite image

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Carolyn A. Reynolds, Melinda S. Peng, and Jan-Huey Chen

both along-track and cross-track directions), although the intensity of the storm is also affected in some cases. When planning for adaptive observing field programs, it is of interest to know not just where the sensitivity is located relative to the storm center, but where the sensitivity is likely to be located geographically. Figure 2a shows the sensitivity averaged over the 22 recurving cases and the averaged analyzed 500-hPa streamlines (note this is not a storm-centered composite). Figure

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Fuqing Zhang, Yonghui Weng, Jason A. Sippel, Zhiyong Meng, and Craig H. Bishop

intensity forecasts. Future studies are planned to examine the dynamics and predictability of Humberto with the EnKF analysis and forecasts. It remains unclear what observations are necessary and sufficient to define the initial tropical cyclone vortex and large-scale environment. Answers to these questions have strong implications related to how society might better distribute resources to cope with future hurricane-related disasters. This is extremely important given that the number of hurricanes and

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Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Tetsuo Nakazawa, and Chun-Chieh Wu

adding the data should have had much more improvement. Our future plan is to evaluate more cases in order to obtain statistical significance and to understand the influence of targeted observations on TC forecasts. This can be achieved through the T-PARC field program conducted during the summer of 2008 and future field campaigns. Acknowledgments Special thanks are given to Sharan Majumdar of the University of Miami for a thorough and constructive review of the manuscript. This work was supported by

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Chun-Chieh Wu, Jan-Huey Chen, Sharanya J. Majumdar, Melinda S. Peng, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Sim D. Aberson, Roberto Buizza, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Shin-Gan Chen, Tetsuo Nakazawa, and Kun-Hsuan Chou

prior to the observing (analysis) time t a , while ensemble members of the multimodel forecasts 48–66 h prior to the observing time are used for the ETKF calculation. The error propagation from t a to the verifying time t υ is considered for TESVs and ETKF. The period of t a – t i is selected for planning synoptic surveillance missions, since the decision for aircraft deployment is required at least 36 h prior to t a in order to meet the air traffic control requirement. For the ADSSV method

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