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William D. Bonner

VOL. 4, NO. 3 WEATHER AND FORECASTING SEPTEMBER 1989NMC Overview: Recent Progress and Future Plans WILLIAM D. BONNERNational Meteorological Center, NWS, NOAA, Washington, D.C.(Manuscript received 3 March 1989, in final form 22 March 1989) ABSTRACT This article 'describes the mission and organization of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), summarizesprogress since the introduction

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Roland R. Draxler

MARCH 1996 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE 111 Trajectory Optimization for Balloon Flight Planning ROLAND R. DRAXLER NOAA/ Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, Maryland 10 July 1995 and 10 October 1995 ABSTRACT The recent solo transpacific balloon flight was used as a test case to evaluate multiple trajectory techniquesto select different pathways based upon potential variations in balloon altitudes. Altitude changes between 3 and8 km above ground resulted in predicted ending locations varying

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Paul J. Kocin, David A. Olson, Arthur C. Wick, and Robert D. Harner

impacting thepreparation of surface analyses at NMC, some preliminary steps that are being taken to improve and modernize the procedures necessary for analysis, as well assome plans for the future. A brief overview of the recenthistory of surface analysis at NMC is presented in section 2. Current procedures are described in section 3,as well as a summary of current problems and controversies. In section 4, a brief discussion of the capabilitiesof one workstation being designed to help produce thesurface

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Gabriel García-Medina, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Peter Ruggiero, and Jeffrey Oskamp

Abstract

An operational inner-shelf wave forecasting system was implemented for the Oregon and southwest Washington coast in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). High-resolution wave forecasts are useful for navigational planning, identifying wave energy resources, providing information for site-specific coastal flood models, and having an informed recreational beach user group, among other things. This forecasting model is run once a day at 1200 UTC producing 84-h forecasts. A series of nested grids with increasing resolution shoreward are implemented to achieve a 30-arc-second resolution at the shelf level. This resolution is significantly higher than what the current operational models produce, thus improving the ability to quantify the alongshore variations of wave conditions on the PNW coast. Normalized root-mean-squared errors in significant wave height and mean wave period range from 0.13 to 0.24 and from 0.13 to 0.26, respectively. Visualization of the forecasts is made available online and is presently being used by recreational beach users and the scientific community. A series of simulations, taking advantage of having a validated shelf-scale numerical wave model, suggests that neither dissipation due to bottom friction nor wind generation is important in the region at this scale for wave forecasting and hindcasting when considering bulk parameters as opposed to the processes of refraction and shoaling. The Astoria and McArthur Canyons; the Stonewall, Perpetua, and Heceta Banks; and Cape Blanco are significant bathymetric features that are shown to be capable of producing alongshore variability of wave heights on the shelf.

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Katie A. Wilson, Pamela L. Heinselman, and Charles M. Kuster

Abstract

Thirty National Weather Service forecasters worked with 1-, 2-, and 5-min phased-array radar (PAR) volumetric updates for a variety of weather events during the 2015 Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment. Exposure to each of these temporal resolutions during simulated warning operations meant that these forecasters could provide valuable feedback on how rapidly updating PAR data impacted their warning decision processes. To capture this feedback, forecasters participated in one of six focus groups. A series of open-ended questions guided focus group discussions, and forecasters were encouraged to share their experiences and opinions from the experiment. Transcriptions of focus group discussions were thematically analyzed, and themes belonging to one of two groups were identified: 1) forecasters’ use of rapidly updating PAR data during the experiment and 2) how forecasters envision rapidly updating PAR data being integrated into warning operations. Findings from this thematic analysis are presented in this paper, and to illustrate these findings from the forecasters’ perspectives, dialogue that captures the essence of their discussions is shared. The identified themes provide motivation to integrate rapidly updating radar data into warning operations and highlight important factors that need to be addressed for the successful integration of these data.

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William M. Whitney, Robert L. Doherty, and Bradley R. Colman

phenomenon that occurs inwestern Washington and has a dramatic impact on local weather. This paper presents the operational forecastingtechniques that are used at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Seattle to forecast the weatherassociated with the PSCZ. A case study is used to demonstrate both the medium-range and short-range techniques.Future considerations are also discussed in light of the planned modernization of the National Weather ,%rviee.1. Introduction In western Washington

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Lara Peck and David William Hedding

with fewer disruptions. According to Cunningham et al. (2012) , forecast products and techniques have greatly improved in recent years. However, improvements are needed for tactical and strategic airport planning. The authors developed one said product relating to predicting the airport arrival rate, specifically during adverse weather. A weather translation model for ground delay programs was developed to translate weather forecasts into probabilistic airport arrival rate predictions. The model

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Richard A. Fulton, Jay P. Breidenbach, Dong-Jun Seo, Dennis A. Miller, and Timothy O’Bannon

; Hunter 1996 ). Because reflectivity factor data is the single, fundamental input to the PPS, section 2 describes the data and how it is quality controlled. Section 3 describes each of the major processing steps of the PPS. Raingauge data characteristics and communication pathways into the WSR-88D are presented in section 4 . Section 5 discusses current deficiencies of the PPS algorithm and plans for future enhancement. Section 6 contains a description of additional rainfall processing that

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James E. Hoke, Norman A. Phillips, Geoffrey J. Dimego, James J. Tuccillo, and Joseph G. Sela

System (RAFS) of the National MeteorologicalCenter (NMC) are described. This system was implemented in March 1985 to supplement guidance fromNMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM), especially for precipitation forecasting. The three componentsof the RAFS are the regional optimum interpolation analysis, the Baer-Tribbia nonlinear normal mode initialization, and the nested grid model--a grid point, primitive-equation model in sigma coordinates. Postprocessingof model forecasts and plans for system

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James W. Wilson and Cynthia K. Mueller

experiments were conducted near Denver, Colorado, with the purpose of providing weatherinformation for planning purposes to air traffic control managers. The nowcasts were based primarily on Dopplerweather radar observations of the clear-air boundary layer, storm reflectivity, storm Doppler velocity structure,and visual observations of clouds. The forecasters found that they could often anticipate thunderstorm initiationby monitoring radar-detected boundary-layer convergence lines together with monitoring

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