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John M. Peters, Christopher J. Nowotarski, and Gretchen L. Mullendore

updrafts will entrain less per unit vertical mass flux at a given height than narrower updrafts. Furthermore, Morrison (2017) showed that because wider updrafts have smaller fractional entrainment rates, they are less susceptible to breaking down into discrete transient thermals than their narrower counterparts. These arguments suggest that supercells may be resistant to the deleterious effects of lateral entrainment because they are wider than ordinary updrafts (we will call this the “width

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Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Iliana E. Mladenova, Jeffrey B. Basara, and Mark Svoboda

methodology a. ESI The ESI is computed using actual ET estimates from the ALEXI model, which is run daily over the contiguous United States (CONUS) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing. ALEXI uses a two-source energy balance (TSEB) model initially developed by Norman et al. (1995) to consider energy processes for vegetated and bare soil components of the land surface. In the TSEB, LST is used to directly constrain the sensible heat flux, with the latent heat flux [ λE (W m −2 ), where E is ET (mm s −1

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Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, and Dong Eun Lee

necessitating that incoming solar radiation be balanced less by evapotranspiration and more by sensible heat flux and longwave radiative cooling, requiring higher surface temperatures, and 2) reduced cloud cover increasing surface downward solar radiation. JJA 2011 stands out as both the driest and hottest JJA since 1950 in this region but does not appear as an outlier in that, given the precipitation reduction, the temperature is what would be expected and it is accompanied by a close analog (JJA 1980

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