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  • Radiative fluxes x
  • Global Drought Information System - Drought Characterization, Occurrence, Driving Mechanisms, and Predictability Worldwide (GDIS Worldwide) x
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Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca, Elsa Mohino, Carlos R. Mechoso, Cyril Caminade, Michela Biasutti, Marco Gaetani, J. Garcia-Serrano, Edward K. Vizy, Kerry Cook, Yongkang Xue, Irene Polo, Teresa Losada, Leonard Druyan, Bernard Fontaine, Juergen Bader, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Lisa Goddard, Serge Janicot, Alberto Arribas, William Lau, Andrew Colman, M. Vellinga, David P. Rowell, Fred Kucharski, and Aurore Voldoire

) and aerosol–radiative forcings ( Kim et al. 2010 ). These effects can potentially interact with each other. For example, the variability of land surface conditions can affect the circulation over the ocean, which in turn can modify the SSTs and indirectly affect conditions over land ( Ma et al. 2013 ). The existence of significant impacts on WAM rainfall of slowly varying climate subcomponents indicates the potential for useful long-range forecasts ( Vellinga et al. 2013 ; Gaetani and Mohino 2013

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Mathew Barlow, Benjamin Zaitchik, Shlomit Paz, Emily Black, Jason Evans, and Andrew Hoell

are probably unable to produce an important class of precipitation event for the Fertile Crescent. Given the extreme terrain throughout most of the region and the scarcity of observations, it is not clear that current gridded global analyses adequately represent regional moisture fluxes. The seasons in the Persian Gulf area of the region are sometimes divided into the northeast monsoon (December–March), the spring transition (April–May), the southwest monsoon (June–September), and the fall

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Ronald E. Stewart, Hailan Wang, Mathew Barlow, Ernesto H. Berbery, Wenju Cai, Martin P. Hoerling, Krishna K. Kanikicharla, Randal D. Koster, Bradfield Lyon, Annarita Mariotti, Carlos R. Mechoso, Omar V. Müller, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Richard Seager, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Lixia Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou

forcing for some of these large-scale motions is known to include sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land (especially soil moisture) feedbacks, aerosols, and other natural and anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing such as those associated with global warming. These forcings are important because they may provide some degree of drought predictability (e.g., Smith et al. 2012 ). It must be kept in mind, however, that there is a substantial unforced (i.e., driven by processes internal to the

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Hailan Wang, Randal D. Koster, Max J. Suarez, and Pavel Ya. Groisman

tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the twentieth century. Frey and Smith (2003) examined precipitation and temperature trends in station observations from western Siberia, a region with a large percentage of the world’s peatlands, and one that contributes substantially to the terrestrial freshwater flux into the Arctic Sea. They found robust patterns of springtime warming and wintertime precipitation increases, with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) playing an important role in nonsummer warming

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