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Christina M. Patricola, R. Saravanan, and Ping Chang

, and AMM and Atlantic TC activity, followed by a description of the data and methodology used in this study. The questions posed above are then investigated by analyzing composites of observed Atlantic TC activity according to ENSO and AMM phases. We also evaluate Atlantic TC activity during rare extreme events that are conceivably absent from the data record due to its brevity by forcing a regional climate model with constructed pairs of strong ENSO and AMM phases. 2. Background Proper guidance

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Gabriele Villarini, David A. Lavers, Enrico Scoccimarro, Ming Zhao, Michael F. Wehner, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas R. Knutson, and Kevin A. Reed

socioeconomic effects, it is essential to evaluate TC rainfall patterns under warming scenarios. The main goals of this study are to undertake a global-scale analysis in six TC basins to analyze possible changes in TC rainfall under different warming scenarios using GCM runs. The research questions we will address are the following: How well can GCMs reproduce the TC rainfall structure present in the observational records? Despite the simplicity of the question, very few studies have examined the capability

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Wei Mei, Shang-Ping Xie, Ming Zhao, and Yuqing Wang

the low- and high-frequency variability of the WNP TC track density and explore underlying mechanisms by analyzing SSTs and various atmospheric fields. We also study, in section 3 , the seasonal evolution of ENSO effect on TC activity via a joint EOF analysis of TC track density during consecutive seasons. Section 4 examines the internal variability and associated predictability of the WNP TC track density and landfall using both global and regional downscaling simulations. A summary is given

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Chao Wang and Liguang Wu

-scale circulations and distinct eastern boundaries of the TC formation in the individual models. As a proxy, the genesis potential index (GPI) defined by Emanuel and Nolan (2004) has been widely used to demonstrate effects of large-scale environmental conditions on TC formation in climate models (e.g., Camargo et al. 2007 , Yokoi et al. 2009 ; Murakami et al. 2011 ; Emanuel 2013 ). Figure 4 shows the GPI in the historical runs of the MIROC-ESM, GFDL CM3, and CESM1(CAM5) models during 1979–2005, and the

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Hiroyuki Murakami, Pang-Chi Hsu, Osamu Arakawa, and Tim Li

1. Introduction The effects of anthropogenic warming on tropical cyclone (TC) activity are critical for estimating the future costs of climate-related socioeconomic impacts. Recently, many studies have attempted to address future changes in TC activity using high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) (e.g., Zhao et al. 2009 ; Bender et al. 2010 ; Murakami et al. 2012b ; Knutson et al. 2013 ), atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) (e.g., Yokoi et al

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Anne S. Daloz, S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, K. Emanuel, M. Horn, J. A. Jonas, D. Kim, T. LaRow, Y.-K. Lim, C. M. Patricola, M. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, D. Shaevitz, P. L. Vidale, H. Wang, M. Wehner, and M. Zhao

to the interannual frequency in the basin. Strazzo et al. (2013) used a spatial lattice technique to analyze two of the models in this study and identified regional biases in the North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. These studies highlighted the importance of accurately simulating the tropical cyclone tracks in addition to the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. To evaluate the ability of modern climate models to represent the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks, the

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John G. Dwyer, Suzana J. Camargo, Adam H. Sobel, Michela Biasutti, Kerry A. Emanuel, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Ming Zhao, and Michael K. Tippett

the future, in agreement with other studies ( Emanuel et al. 2008 ). Furthermore, other CMIP5 analyses ( Camargo 2013 ; Tory et al. 2013 ; Murakami et al. 2014 ) project a reduction of global TC frequency by the end of the twenty-first century for most models. Regional changes in TC frequency are more uncertain (e.g., Knutson et al. 2008 ; Villarini and Vecchi 2012 , 2013 ; Knutson et al. 2013 ; Wu et al. 2014 ). Here we investigate how the timing of the tropical cyclone season is projected

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Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Timothy LaRow, Daniel J. Halperin, and Ming Zhao

facilitate efficient spatial and statistical comparison of model-generated TCs. Here we employ the spatial lattice to see how well the spatial distribution of actual TCs compares with the distributions generated by two atmospheric GCMs: the Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) spectral model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). The methodology applied in this study to compare regional cyclone

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Michael Wehner, Prabhat, Kevin A. Reed, Dáithí Stone, William D. Collins, and Julio Bacmeister

of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models . J. Climate , 26 , 9880 – 9902 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00549.1 . Camargo , S. J. , K. A. Emanuel , and A. B. Sobel , 2007 : Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis . J. Climate , 20 , 4819 – 4834 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI4282.1 . Christensen , J. H. , and Coauthors , 2013 : Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change . Climate Change 2013: The Physical

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Suzana J. Camargo, Michael K. Tippett, Adam H. Sobel, Gabriel A. Vecchi, and Ming Zhao

better skill in simulating the environmental fields than in simulating TC-like structures themselves (e.g., Camargo 2013 ), these strategies make better use of the climate models. One possibility is to use the large-scale fields of the global models to force regional climate models ( Landman et al. 2005 ; Camargo et al. 2007a ; Knutson et al. 2008 ). Another possibility is to use a hybrid dynamical–statistical model (e.g., Vecchi et al. 2011 ) as well as a dynamical downscaling model that

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