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Jie Feng and Xuguang Wang

increased resolution to reveal their combined effects. The initial analysis of BASE(Hh) is the same as that of BASE but is interpolated to the 9-, 3-, and 1-km grid spacing for a high-resolution free forecast. Group 2 is similar to Group 1 but is focused on the increased vertical resolution without changing the horizontal resolution relative to BASE. More details of the experiments can be found in Table 2 . 4. Results a. Impact of increased model resolution on TC analyses 1) TC intensity and structure

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Russell L. Elsberry, Eric A. Hendricks, Christopher S. Velden, Michael M. Bell, Melinda Peng, Eleanor Casas, and Qingyun Zhao

1. Introduction The objective of this study is to demonstrate the potential impacts for the U.S. Navy regional and global models of continuous rapid-scan atmospheric motion vectors at 10-min intervals that simulate the real-time capability that now exists over the full disk of the new generation of geostationary meteorological satellites. The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) and the GOES-16 with the Advanced Baseline Imager ( Schmit et al. 2017 ) have 16 spectral bands that can simultaneously

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Xu Lu and Xuguang Wang

2014 ), some studies ( Stern and Nolan 2011 ; Stern et al. 2014 , 2017 ) suggested that there can be oscillating inflow and outflow in the vertical direction between the typical boundary layer inflow and the upper-level outflow in both observations and model simulations. Bryan and Rotunno (2009a) provides an analytical solution showing that these vertical oscillations of inflow and outflow in such TCs can be a result of unbalanced flow effects, in which the vertical subgradient and

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Peter Black, Lee Harrison, Mark Beaubien, Robert Bluth, Roy Woods, Andrew Penny, Robert W. Smith, and James D. Doyle

1. Introduction Widely used tropical cyclone (TC) models include regional air–sea coupled dynamical models such as COAMPS-TC ( Jin et al. 2014 ), HWRF ( Tallapragada et al. 2014 ; Kim et al. 2014 ) and GFDL ( Bender et al. 2007 ; Gall et al. 2011 ); global dynamical models such as GFS and ECMWF; and statistical–dynamical intensity-prediction models such as SHIPS, the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS), the Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM), and the rapid intensity

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Quanjia Zhong, Jianping Li, Lifeng Zhang, Ruiqiang Ding, and Baosheng Li

Tao , D. , and F. Zhang , 2015 : Effects of vertical wind shear on the predictability of tropical cyclones: Practical versus intrinsic limit . J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. , 7 , 1534 – 1553 , https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000474 . 10.1002/2015MS000474 Weng , Y. , and F. Zhang , 2016 : Advances in convection-permitting tropical cyclone analysis and prediction through EnKF assimilation of reconnaissance aircraft observations . J. Meteor. Soc. Japan , 94 , 345 – 358 , https

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Eric A. Hendricks, Russell L. Elsberry, Christopher S. Velden, Adam C. Jorgensen, Mary S. Jordan, and Robert L. Creasey

according to Wood and Ritchie (2015) . Then for that decay to be suddenly interrupted, and for Joaquin to maintain an intensity of 75 kt for 30 h while accelerating poleward, is unusual as continued decay is normally expected over colder water in the absence of baroclinic effects that might have maintained the intensity. Berg (2016) indicated that increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS) resulted in the onset of rapid weakening of Joaquin. The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction

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Shixuan Zhang and Zhaoxia Pu

advanced DA method (e.g., 4DEnVar) can potentially outperform the VI scheme used in the current operational HWRF by mitigating the negative effects of this scheme on the HWRF intensity forecast. 3) Precipitation To objectively understand various data and forecast impacts, quantitative precipitation is further assessed. Figure 6 shows the equitable threat scores (ETSs) ( Wilks 1995 ) of heavy rainfall for the accumulated precipitation (values of more than 80 mm are only compared in this study) from

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Shixuan Zhang, Zhaoxia Pu, and Christopher Velden

1800 UTC 13 October 2014 to reach the intensification phase. A 72-h forecast from 1800 UTC 13 October to 1800 UTC 16 October 2014 is then performed to predict intensity changes of Hurricane Gonzalo. The first group of experiments (VI experiments) is based on “DA with VI.” A combination of VI with DA is used in each analysis cycle. A set of three DA experiments is performed for Hurricane Gonzalo to examine the effects of incorporating the enhanced AMVs into one or both ghost domains. Details of the

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