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Christian Barthlott and Corinna Hoose

( Rosenfeld et al. 2008 ). The larger water load at the freezing level results in an additional release of latent heat, leading to an invigoration of convection with additional rainfall. Even in absence of such a thermodynamic invigoration, Fan et al. (2013) found that aerosol’s microphysical effects can lead to a dramatic increase in cloud cover, cloud-top height, and cloud thickness at the mature and dissipation stages by inducing larger amounts of smaller but longer-lasting ice particles in the

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Tobias Selz

used in this study to assess intrinsic predictability limits without the need to resolve the convection explicitly. This approach is justified by the results of Selz and Craig (2015a) , who showed for a regional model that the stochastic convection scheme is able to generate similar synoptic-scale errors from upscale error growth at 60-h lead time as a convection-permitting simulation. The scheme explicitly models individual updrafts within a grid box, where the strength of each updraft (the cloud

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Tobias Selz, Lotte Bierdel, and George C. Craig

determine . A standard discrete Fourier transform (DFT) should not be used on the wind fields of a regional model because they are nonperiodic, which would lead to substantial aliasing from modes larger than the domain size. One option to deal with this problem is to apply a detrending of the fields first. The second, mathematically more elegant, option is to use a DCT that is not sensitive to nonperiodic boundaries, as is widely used in fields such as image processing and compression. A DCT is

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Stephan Rasp, Tobias Selz, and George C. Craig

Germany at 50°N, 10°E. For the analysis, a 256 × 256 gridpoint subdomain, roughly 717 km × 717 km, at the center of the simulation domain is considered to avoid boundary spinup effects. The 50-member ensemble simulations are started at 0000 UTC on each of the 12 consecutive days (see section 3 ) with a simulation time of 24 h. For initial and boundary conditions, we use hourly interpolated deterministic COSMO European version (COSMO-EU) analyses, which have a horizontal resolution of 7 km. Each

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