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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

the regional and local scales. Within this context, methodologies for adequate simulation of changes in urban systems, agricultural systems, ecosystem disturbance regimes, and soil impacts are not yet well represented. The combined effects of climate change and urbanization may alter both the quantity and timing of streamflow and has the potential to change the conditions of water quality that support biological diversity in aquatic communities. These results did not consider potential future land

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David M. Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger

combined effects of climate and land-cover change, as well as by incorporating improved algorithms for distributing precipitation data and simulating evapotranspiration and including other GCM simulation results for comparison. For more local sensitivity within a regional modeling application, the results of this study suggest the need for the creation of subregions for distributing the precipitation and temperature input data to assess the daily variability in precipitation. Acknowledgments The

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Mark C. Mastin, Katherine J. Chase, and R. W. Dudley

Maine during the 20th century . U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Rep. 02-4245, 26 pp . Gleick , P. H. , 1987 : Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric CO 2 and other trace gases . Climatic Change , 10 , 137 – 161 . Hamlet , A. F. , and D. P. Lettenmaier , 1999 : Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia basin . J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc. , 35 , 1597 – 1623 . Hamlet , A. F. , P. W. Mote , M. P. Clark

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Roland J. Viger, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, John W. Jones, and Gary R. Buell

formatting time-series data for hydrologic modeling . U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Rep. 2009–1166, 27 pp . White , E. M. , A. T. Morzillo , and R. J. Alig , 2009 : Past and projected rural land conversion in the US at state, regional, and national levels . Landscape Urban Plann. , 89 ( 1–2 ), 37 – 48 . Wissmar , R. C. , R. K. Timm , and M. G. Logsdon , 2004 : Effects of changing forest and impervious land covers on discharge characteristics of watersheds . Environ. Manage

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John Risley, Hamid Moradkhani, Lauren Hay, and Steve Markstrom

its application. In addition, the existence of bias in regional climate models (RCMs) requires bias correction through statistical postprocessing. Because of these disadvantages, dynamic downscaling still has limited use in hydrologic applications. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), the model that generated the output analyzed in this paper, has become a capable watershed model for analyzing climate-change effects ( Leavesley et al. 1992 ). Dagnachew et

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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. The PRMS models for this national study were developed, calibrated, and evaluated for previous or current hydrologic investigations. Outputs from five GCMs responding to three greenhouse-gas emission scenarios were input to PRMS models to simulate an ensemble of hydrologic responses to climate changes for each watershed. The hydrologic impact and sensitivity of the simulations

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