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José L. Hernández, Syewoon Hwang, Francisco Escobedo, April H. Davis, and James W. Jones

applying an ideal conversion where dryland crop/pasture was converted into the urban class. We focused our analysis of urbanization effects on the surface and low-atmosphere conditions through regional numerical experiments during a July 1993 modeling period. This year, concurrent with the model actual land use distribution, is used as a representative baseline to provide a comparison with the proposed extreme LUC scenario, which resulted in a land use distribution similar to contemporary patterns

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Gabrielle Roesch-McNally, Michael Chang, Meghan Dalton, Scott Lowe, Charlie Luce, Christine May, Gary Morishima, Philip Mote, Alexander “Sascha” Petersen, and Emily York

Northwest regional chapter, in which innovative approaches led to a stronger assessment and to insights that may prove useful to the next NCA and other environmental assessments. Scientific assessments, such as NCA4, provide an opportunity to bring together subject-matter experts to produce syntheses that illustrate scientific consensus on the causes and consequences of global phenomena such as climate change ( Moss et al. 2019 ). One of the benefits of developing an assessment process is that it can

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L. Bruce Railsback

to wealth and geopolitical power in North America did not do the same in the Caribbean and Africa [as Engerman (2003) asked]. Questions like these combine with the relationship documented in Fig. 2 and Tables 2 , 5 , and 6 to suggest that regular moderate precipitation and its facilitation of societal development are necessary (not sufficient, but necessary) conditions for eventual empire and large-scale economic dominance. b. Climate and regional aspects of human history 1) The

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M. Elyas Karim

depending on the features of specific local ecosystems. A model for tackling the effects of climate change should be pragmatic, efficient, flexible, inclusive, and applicable to each area. Permaculture has been proposed as a technique that meets these requirements, and its application to the MENA region is considered in the discussion below ( Leahy and Goforth 2014 , their Fig. 4). This paper takes a preliminary look at the role of climate change in MENA violence and the potential for redressing this

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Paola A. Arias, Juan Camilo Villegas, Jenny Machado, Angélica M. Serna, Lina M. Vidal, Catherine Vieira, Carlos A. Cadavid, Sara C. Vieira, Jorge E. Ángel, and Óscar A. Mejía

element, constituted by a complete assessment of the current risk management policies at local and subregional levels. Such assessment would provide insights on how current policies include vulnerability reduction strategies, suggesting how a social network for environmental monitoring could be inserted into such policies. Conversely, an adequate comprehension of local and regional policies by communities and institution members would promote a more effective inclusion of these risk management

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Detlef Jahn

; Scruggs 2003 ). However, this article argues that another aspect has been neglected in environmental studies: the impact of climate and weather conditions. The rationale of considering this aspect is straightforward: countries in cold climates, as well as years with severe winters, require more energy for heating, thus leading to increased atmospheric emissions. Neglecting the regional climate and weather patterns generates an omitted variable bias, which in turn may lead to false results. While the

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Dana R. N. Brown, Todd J. Brinkman, David L. Verbyla, Caroline L. Brown, Helen S. Cold, and Teresa N. Hollingsworth

, 2016 : Arctic communities perceive climate impacts on access as a critical challenge to availability of subsistence resources . Climatic Change , 139 , 413 – 427 , . 10.1007/s10584-016-1819-6 Brubaker , M. , J. Berner , R. Chavan , and J. Warren , 2011 : Climate change and health effects in northwest Alaska . Global Health Action , 4 , . 10.3402/gha.v4i0.8445 Carothers , C. , C. Brown , K. J. Moerlein

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P. Zion Klos, John T. Abatzoglou, Alycia Bean, Jarod Blades, Melissa A. Clark, Megan Dodd, Troy E. Hall, Amanda Haruch, Philip E. Higuera, Joseph D. Holbrook, Vincent S. Jansen, Kerry Kemp, Amber Lankford, Timothy E. Link, Troy Magney, Arjan J. H. Meddens, Liza Mitchell, Brandon Moore, Penelope Morgan, Beth A. Newingham, Ryan J. Niemeyer, Ben Soderquist, Alexis A. Suazo, Kerri T. Vierling, Von Walden, and Chelsea Walsh

users are diverse ( Moss et al. 2014 ). Studies have been conducted to explore perceptions of climate change and associated impacts, notably at national and regional scales (e.g., Hulme and Turnpenny 2004 ; Leiserowitz 2005 ; Leiserowitz and Smith 2010 ; Leiserowitz et al. 2011 ). Expert elicitation has also been sought for many climate change assessments seeking to provide salient information specifically tailored to end users ( Cohen 1997 ; NRC 2010 ; EPA 2010 ; Craghan 2012 ; Melillo et

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Melanie Brown and Dominique Bachelet

in climate impacts ( Table 11 ). We define climate impacts here as the effects of climate on both natural resources and society. Land managers were specifically interested in vegetation shifts, including the spread of juniper and invasive annual grasses, plant migration, and wildlife habitat changes. One manager emphasized, “A main concern or question I have is about the final impacts. What are they going to be? What will be the seasonality and the amounts of moisture? What’s going to happen and

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Shannon M. McNeeley, Tyler A. Beeton, and Dennis S. Ojima

. 2000 ; Cook et al. 2015 ). A key finding from the 2014 National Climate Assessment Great Plains regional report suggested that climate change, streamflow overallocation, increases in population and development, and both energy extraction and use pose significant risks of increased competition over scarce water resources ( Shafer et al. 2014 ; Ojima et al. 2012 ). Finally, drought is a “wicked” problem, characterized by competing values and risk perceptions, which results in fundamentally

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