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Fiaz Ahmed and J. David Neelin

distinct lower-tropospheric layers. We also define the plume buoyancy B as The traditional formulation of buoyancy is , where and are the plume and environment virtual temperatures, respectively, so our formulation differs from the traditional formulation in its omission of the virtual temperature effects. Using (3) and (8) for and assuming zero mass flux (or influence) at the surface, we get an expression for the buoyancy B in height coordinates: and a similar expression in pressure

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Yi-Hung Kuo, Kathleen A. Schiro, and J. David Neelin

originating from the extratropics ( section S6 ). The observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds critical has been explained by entraining plume calculations, through which the deep convective conditional instability can be estimated. As previously demonstrated ( Holloway and Neelin 2009 ; Schiro et al. 2016 ; Kuo et al. 2017 ), CWV serves as a measure of the impact of environment moisture on plume buoyancy, and hence the instability, through the effects of mixing, as indicated by the

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Ángel F. Adames and Yi Ming

. Additionally, it is clear that TRMM precipitation exhibits a larger variance than the model does. This may be related to the inability of coarse-resolution GCMs to fully represent the topographic features of South Asia, thus not adequately representing their effects on precipitation. Fig . 1. Mean JJAS 850-hPa geopotential height (shading) and horizontal flow (arrows) for (a) AM4.0 and (b) ERA-Interim. The longest arrows correspond to winds of ~15 m s −1 . White areas in (a) correspond to regions where the

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