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Dingchen Hou, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann, and Helin Wei

NWP model—is based on dynamic and physical principles. The initial conditions used to start the integration are provided by a well-defined global observational network, and a complicated and comprehensive objective analysis scheme. Therefore, these models are relatively mature and the accuracy of forecast, especially at short range, is high. At the longer lead time, the effect of uncertainties, such as in the initial conditions, will increase, but the EPS approach helps to mitigate the problem

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Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Paul R. Houser, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels

the model state, as in analysis nudging ( Stauffer and Seaman 1990 ; Houser et al. 1998 ), and combined spatial interpolation and temporal propagation as explored in the space–time Kalman filter ( Huang and Cressie 1996 ). Generally, the choice is between a better or more complex LSM with a simple assimilation scheme and a simple LSM with a more complex assimilation scheme. Exploring the possibility of accounting for horizontal information flow within the assimilation scheme is worthwhile

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M. F. P. Bierkens and L. P. H. van Beek

described in detail in the next section, is a statistical approach in which historical meteorological fields (precipitation, evaporation, and temperature) based on 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) ( Uppala et al. 2005 ) are related to a predicted winter NAO index based on May SST ( Rodwell and Folland 2002 ). Seasonal forecasts of river discharge are obtained by running the predicted meteorological fields through a large-scale hydrological model ( van

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Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, Bart van den Hurk, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

equations for the soil moisture dependency on evapotranspiration and drainage are the same, or at least very similar. Indeed, it has been shown that just by using the point-specific linearized dependencies of evapotranspiration and drainage to soil moisture, most of the gridpoint soil moisture variability in original LSMs can be reproduced ( Koster and Milly 1997 ). While stochastic soil moisture models have mainly been used for theoretical analysis (e.g., Rodríguez-Iturbe and Porporato 2004 ), they

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Yongqiang Zhang, Francis H. S. Chiew, Lu Zhang, and Hongxia Li

1. Introduction Improving the accuracy of runoff predictions in ungauged catchments is one of most challenging tasks in hydrology ( Franks et al. 2005 ; Goswami et al. 2007 ; Sivapalan et al. 2003 ). Parameter regionalization in lumped rainfall–runoff models is a commonly used method to transfer optimized parameter values to target ungauged catchments. Various regionalization methods have been developed, such as nearest neighbor, kriging, site similarity, and regression methods ( Kay et al

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