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Julia H. Keller

and Sheldon (1995) . Based on analysis data for several ET cases, Harr and Dea (2009) showed the transitioning TC to act as an additional source of , supporting the amplification and downstream dispersion of a RWT. Keller et al. (2014) applied the approach of Harr and Dea (2009) to forecast scenarios for the ET of Hurricane Hanna (2008) and Typhoon Choi-Wan (2009), derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF EPS). They found that the

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Andrea Schneidereit, Silke Schubert, Pavel Vargin, Frank Lunkeit, Xiuhua Zhu, Dieter H. W. Peters, and Klaus Fraedrich

is characterized by a change from El Niño to La Niña conditions and by a strong dipole anomaly mode in the Arctic ( Wu et al. 2006 ; Wang et al. 2009 ). This dipole anomaly mode (DA) is determined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis ( Wang et al. 2009 ) applied to pressure or geopotential north of 70°N, with the DA mode represented by the second EOF. The regression maps of the first two EOFs correspond to the AO mode (first EOF, not shown) and the DA mode (second EOF, Fig. 5

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Lars Wiegand, Arwen Twitchett, Cornelia Schwierz, and Peter Knippertz

represented by a surrounding ellipsoidal envelope. Recall that only matched PV streamers in forecast and analysis are used for this approach. The number of unmatched members per lead time and center is given in Table 1 . The center of the ellipse is the mean over all matched ensemble members and the orientation of the main axis is determined by linear regression. The length of this axis is calculated, so that the ellipse encompasses either 90% of the forecast streamer center points or the point with the

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Florian Harnisch and Martin Weissmann

1. Introduction Tropical cyclones (TCs) usually develop over data-sparse regions of the tropical oceans. The limited number of observations and the rapid development of TCs increases uncertainties of the model analysis in these regions, which can lead to significant forecast errors ( Langland 2005 ). Surveillance programs deploying dropsonde observations in and around TCs have been operated for the Atlantic ( Burpee et al. 1996 ; Aberson 2002 ) and the western North Pacific basin ( Wu et al

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

J. Methven , 2013 : Diabatic processes modifying potential vorticity in a North Atlantic cyclone . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 139 , 1270 – 1282 , . 10.1002/qj.2037 Chang , E. K. M. , 1993 : Downstream development of baroclinic waves as inferred from regression analysis . J. Atmos. Sci. , 50 , 2038 – 2053 ,<2038:DDOBWA>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<2038:DDOBWA>2.0.CO;2 Chang , E. K. M. , 1999

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Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

= max k Δ k , i . REFERENCES Chang , E. K. M. , 1993 : Downstream development of baroclinic waves as inferred from regression analysis . J. Atmos. Sci. , 50 , 2038 – 2053 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<2038:DDOBWA>2.0.CO;2 . Chang , E. K. M. , 1999 : Characteristics of wave packets in the upper troposphere. Part II: Seasonal and hemispheric variations . J. Atmos. Sci. , 56 , 1729 – 1747 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<1729:COWPIT>2.0.CO;2 . Chang , E. K. M. , 2005 : The impact of

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Julia H. Keller, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, Heather M. Archambault, Lance Bosart, James D. Doyle, Jenni L. Evans, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Kyle Griffin, Patrick A. Harr, Naoko Kitabatake, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon, Julian F. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Ryan D. Torn, and Fuqing Zhang

-0272.1 Kowaleski , A. M. , and J. L. Evans , 2016 : Regression mixture model clustering of multimodel ensemble forecasts of Hurricane Sandy: Partition characteristics . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 144 , 3825 – 3846 , . 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0099.1 Kumpf , A. , M. Rautenhaus , M. Riemer , and R. Westermann , 2019 : Visual analysis of the temporal evolution of ensemble forecast sensitivities . IEEE Trans. Visualization Comput. Graphics , 25 , 98 – 108 , https

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Tobias Selz and George C. Craig

-resolution configuration deep convection is considered to be resolved and the model is run with only a parameterization for shallow convection. The present study is based on the COSMO-DE configuration, but with the domain enlarged to a size of about 7000 km by 4250 km (2481 × 1521 grid points), which covers several times the Rossby radius of deformation. Some minor changes to the model setup were necessary since we used Integrated Forecast System (IFS) analysis and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium

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