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Elizabeth Satterfield and Istvan Szunyogh

points within the local volume and the number of model variables considered at each grid point, is equal to N . To simplify the notation, in what follows, we drop the argument ℓℓ from the notation of the local state vector, because all equations are valid at any arbitrary location ℓℓ. We predict the uncertainty in the knowledge of the local state at both the analysis and the different forecast times by an ensemble-based estimate of the local error covariance matrix : In Eq. (1) , K is the number

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Sharanya J. Majumdar, Kathryn J. Sellwood, Daniel Hodyss, Zoltan Toth, and Yucheng Song

II: The value of observations taken in singular vectors-based target areas. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 133 , 1817 – 1832 . Chang , E. K. M. , 1993 : Downstream development of baroclinic waves as inferred from regression analysis. J. Atmos. Sci. , 50 , 2038 – 2053 . Chang , E. K. M. , and I. Orlanski , 1993 : On the dynamics of a storm track. J. Atmos. Sci. , 50 , 999 – 1015 . Chang , E. K. M. , and I. Orlanski , 1994 : On energy flux and group velocity of waves in

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Munehiko Yamaguchi and Sharanya J. Majumdar

spread was large, there was a possibility that the track error was large. Many operational NWP centers such as ECMWF, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and JMA operate their own EPS. An ensemble prediction system consists of a number of numerical integrations that are initialized with different initial conditions in order to represent the uncertainty in the analysis. The method to create initial perturbations, or to estimate the uncertainty in the analysis, is different

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