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Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

global ensemble systems. Predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, 2009–17) and the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC, 2009–16 only due to limited data availability) will be compared, since both performed well in past model intercomparisons over West Africa ( Vogel et al. 2018 ) and Ethiopia by Stellingwerf et al. (2020 ). The analysis will evaluate the whole probability distribution with separate assessments for rainfall occurrence, amount, and extremes. In

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Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

-line occurrence in the western Sahel ( Fink and Reiner 2003 ) and lead to enhanced skill in cloudiness forecasts over West Africa ( Söhne et al. 2008 ). However, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are known to have an overall poor ability to predict rainfall systems over northern Africa. For example, the gain in skill by improved initial conditions due to an enhanced upper-air observational network during the 2006 African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) campaign ( Parker et al. 2008 ) was

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