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Ryan D. Torn

and Hakim 2007 ). This equation is the best-fit line to the linear regression between the analysis state variable and forecast metric, which are the independent and dependent variables, respectively. Multiplying the right-hand side by the ensemble standard deviation, which is an approximation of the analysis error, allows for a qualitative comparison between forecast hours and fields since ∂ J /∂ x i has units of the metric. Ensemble sensitivity is estimated from a relatively small ensemble

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Fatima Karbou, Elisabeth Gérard, and Florence Rabier

regressions and empirical models ( Weng et al. 2001 ; Grody 1988 ) has been used in NWP and has facilitated the assimilation of AMSU channels over land. The effectiveness of these models depends on the input parameters about the surface, for which a global analysis does not always exist. To date, observations are more intensively used over sea than over land thanks to effective sea emissivity models ( Deblonde and English 2000 ; Guillou et al. 1998 ; Prigent and Abba 1990 ; Guissard and Sobieski 1987

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Benjamin Sultan, Serge Janicot, and Cyrille Correia

variability of convection indicate modeling progress must be made in achieving the likely potential of dynamic models ( Waliser et al. 1999 ; von Storch and Baumhefner 1991 ). The aim of this paper is to give a first overview of the predictability of the intraseasonal variability of rainfall over West Africa at a medium lead time. We use a statistical method, singular spectrum analysis (SSA), which has already provided promising results in filtering and predicting intraseasonal oscillations of convection

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