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James B. Elsner, Sarah E. Strazzo, Thomas H. Jagger, Timothy LaRow, and Ming Zhao

Atlantic basin” by Patrick J. Michaels, Paul C. Knappenberger, and Robert E. Davis . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 34 , L06702 , doi:10.1029/2006GL026942 . Emanuel , K. A. , S. Ravela , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314 . Evans , J. , 1993 : Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea-surface temperature . J. Climate , 6 , 1133 – 1140 . Jagger , T. H. , and J. B. Elsner

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Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Marie-Estelle Demory, Reinhard Schiemann, Jane Strachan, Kevin Hodges, Ray Bell, and Joanne Camp

1. Introduction There is an increasing need for skillful climate information at regional and local scales, particularly for considering variability and extremes, in order to inform future planning and impact risk assessments, both to prepare for climate change and to investigate opportunities for renewable energy and for the insurance and reinsurance industries to understand risk. Current phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)-class models ( Taylor et al. 2012 ) generally

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Gabriele Villarini, David A. Lavers, Enrico Scoccimarro, Ming Zhao, Michael F. Wehner, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas R. Knutson, and Kevin A. Reed

changes, there are minor retunings of the atmospheric parameters in the cloud and surface boundary layer parameterizations necessary to achieve the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative balance ( Zhao et al. 2012 ). This model is also the version of HiRAM used for the GFDL participation in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) high-resolution time-slice simulations. The CAM5, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation

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Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Timothy LaRow, Daniel J. Halperin, and Ming Zhao

. Section 6 compares the spatial distribution of observed and model TC occurrence over the North Atlantic alone using both the GFDL and FSU COAPS models. Comparisons are quantified using relative risk ratios. A summary is given in section 7 . 2. Data a. Observational data Observational data used in this research come from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS; available online at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ibtracs/ ; Knapp et al. 2010 ). For analysis purposes, the 6

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Enrico Scoccimarro, Silvio Gualdi, Gabriele Villarini, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Ming Zhao, Kevin Walsh, and Antonio Navarra

GFDL participation in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) high-resolution time-slice simulations. The model uses a finite-volume dynamical core with a cubed-sphere grid topology ( Putman and Lin 2007 ) and 32 vertical levels. The notation C180 in the model name indicates 180 × 180 grid points in each face of the cube; the size of the model grid varies from 43.5 to 61.6 km. The model uses a modified version of the University of Washington Shallow

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John G. Dwyer, Suzana J. Camargo, Adam H. Sobel, Michela Biasutti, Kerry A. Emanuel, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Ming Zhao, and Michael K. Tippett

. Holloway , and R. Korty , 2004 : Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity . J. Atmos. Sci. , 61 , 843 – 858 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0843:ECOTCI>2.0.CO;2 . Emanuel , K. A. , S. Ravela , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314 , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299 . Emanuel , K. A. , R. Sundararajan , and J. Williams , 2008 : Hurricanes and global warming

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Chao Wang and Liguang Wu

higher skill in simulating the climatological TUTT, with skill scores exceeding 0.5 and longitude biases of the TUTT less than 10°. Because the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections are not available in the CNRM-CM5.2 model, only 15 models are selected for further analysis ( Fig. 1 ). 4. Zonal shift of the TUTT in the warming scenarios This section focuses on the zonal location of the TUTT in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Following the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental

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Yohei Yamada and Masaki Satoh

global warming do not exhibit a robust response. Zelinka and Hartmann (2010) showed that the combined mean of the 15 climate models for the A2 scenario of International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) caused a decrease in the amount of upper clouds in the tropics (see also Zelinka et al. 2012b ). However, Collins and Satoh (2009) and Satoh et al. (2012a) recently argued that the amount of upper clouds might be increased under global warming conditions by using a

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Suzana J. Camargo, Michael K. Tippett, Adam H. Sobel, Gabriel A. Vecchi, and Ming Zhao

. Ravela , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314 , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299 . Emanuel , K. A. , R. Sundararajan , and J. Williams , 2008 : Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 89 , 347 – 367 , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347 . Gray , W. M. , 1979 : Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the

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Hamish A. Ramsay, Savin S. Chand, and Suzana J. Camargo

.1716222114 . 10.1073/pnas.1716222114 Emanuel , K. , C. DesAutels , C. Holloway , and R. Korty , 2004 : Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity . J. Atmos. Sci. , 61 , 843 – 858 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0843:ECOTCI>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0843:ECOTCI>2.0.CO;2 Emanuel , K. , S. Ravela , E. Vivant , and C. Risi , 2006 : A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 87 , 299 – 314

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