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Thomas M. Hamill, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, Michael Fiorino, and Stanley G. Benjamin

individual member, especially at longer leads, thus contributing to the HFIP goal of a reduction in track error. The diversity of track forecasts and maximum surface wind speed forecasts (TC intensity) could be used to quantitatively assess risk and make more appropriate and earlier decisions about coastal evacuations. The current state of the art of TC forecasts from global operational ensemble systems was recently described in Majumdar and Finocchio (2010) . Two technological improvements that may

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